Calling a Spade a Spade

This blog could be winding down toward its end because, similar to what is happening to OLF its usefulness might be overdue since the effort to nurture grassroots opposition parties had proven to be a difficult task. The difference between to what might happen to OLF and to this blog is that OLF will be survived by OLA whose members are still out in the woods according to a recent video release. The reality might be that even if OLF claims to be still in charge if those who are direct participants of OLA could easily take charge of their own affair in their own hands since there are only a few things they need to accomplish at the outset. One of them is to be familiar with the time we are in where it is an ethnic group that had been marginalized itself that is in charge of the national affairs. That would mean that the nature of the struggle would be different from yesteryears and it is up to them to decide which route to take. The second important thing is whatever route they decided to take, either they have to have the support of the Oromo public or in the absence of that and they are very determined that what they are doing is important for the Oromo public, they have to take charge of their own affair by soliciting support from wherever it is going to be available. They can learn lesson from TPLF and EPLF/ELF that were determined no matter how the support they were getting form their respective public had been wavering and have finished on top.

The other thing that might need addressing is that they might not need the support of any elite group such as OLF at the outset per se since they can do the soliciting of the support by themselves, by electing a handful of committees that will go out and talk with the Oromo public to see if they will support their effort and are willing to help them in whatever way is possible. Probably that is one good way of starting a grassroots movement that can grow into anything, because as such groups gain success, they will be in a position to recruit educated experts who are willing to work for the cause espoused or once they are established, similar to what had been witnessed from TPLF and EPLF, educated Oromos who might be tired of what they are encountering wherever they are living, if such a problem is prevalent in the country, or by using other pretexts could join the movement once they are convinced about its usefulness, similar to what happened to the above mentioned two movements that were attracting many promising young and educated people that included both current leaders of the parties.

The advantage of managing their own affair like this is their effort will not be hijacked by any interest group that might have an ax to grind and they will continue to call the shots or have equal say in the decision process even if they interact and surround themselves with topnotch elite. This will eliminate interest groups that will only want to take advantage of the fruit of their effort and will disappear once they lined up their pocket. Therefore, even if they fail to generate enough support locally they can continue to solicit help from outside of the country and at one point if their vision is found to be very useful for the Oromo public they will be in a position to put it to work showing that it is not impossible to nurture political parties that have their base entrenched deep into the grassroots. The reason for that seems to be change had been introduced on their behalf and had started with slogans such as "land to the tiller" and if there is anyone this freedom will mean a lot to, it is to them. Because of that it is only them that should protect the attained freedom as they see it fit.

That is why we might have no choice other than calling a spade a spade because what is taking place in the country is a struggle of oppressed people who should do everything they can not to lose the freedom they got because, as stated many times, there are interest groups that still believe that they are living in the old Africa we used to know where some powerful people who were representing powerful interest groups have caused a lot of collateral damage and had passed away or could still be around living off what they misappropriated, while a few might still be in a position of power. TPLF/EPRDF are running the nation at a time where there is pressure on governments to be transparent in order to be able to get the next grant, aid, loan etc. and if they fail to do so they know what the consequence will be where whatever channels that are opened could disappear. However, it is difficult to put a cap on what takes place in a market driven economy similar to a market that is controlled centrally since that is what the current system is trying to transform itself into from where it was stagnating at the time of the Derg. Everyone can prosper in the private sector as long as there is a rule of law where no one group has to take advantage of others by the virtue of being connected to governmental bodies or officials or for being in charge of the government. This by itself is much easier said than done because anything goes in the private sector where the only exception being that there are certain overt unfair advantages that are prohibited by law and for the most part the law spells them out clearly. Other than that since the main driver of the private sector is profit, if any group sacrifices its own interest by giving others unfair advantage it will not be around for long.

It is not also difficult to catch the government while breaking the rules and there are abundant measures to take even in an environment where the legal system could be forced to be pro government. The government will find it difficult to break the rules continuously, the reason why in the long run, having a level playing field will be advantageous for everyone. At the same time the nation has learned a bad lesson from the regime that was in charge of the country before the Derg where they were amassing unfair advantage to their own ethnic group only, by marginalizing the rest of the nation including the disadvantaged members of their own ethnic group and when there was enough opposition to what they were doing, toppling them was not difficult. There is no reason why the same should not happen to the current regime if it is taking advantage of situations by giving undue advantage to its members only, which might not be acceptable in the private sector, unlike the public sector where certain key positions should be in the hands of certain people because of the security threat that is in existence. But in the private sector there must be fair competition and it is the job of the government to oversee that by using the judiciary system, in addition to other governmental offices whose job is to avail a fair advantage to everyone without being too keen to punish success or taking sides.

Establishments such as banks cannot create a two tier system where they can charge a certain group a lower interest rate and it is up to the legal system to prohibit such actions in spite of the fact that banks are free to charge whatever interest rate they want, although they cannot discriminate. Other than that, as it had been said many times, the private sector is a jungle where it is only the fittest that can survive in it, although everyone might have to abide by certain laws and regulations similar to what is happening in the advanced regions where the most powerful corporations can be dragged into a courtroom despite the fact it could cost arms and legs to do so, but no matter what justice will be served. In fact, governments could also be taken to court and it happens many times. Therefore, all interest groups who are claiming to have all the outstanding ability to do wonders for the nation are welcome to sweat it out in the private sector and compensate themselves for their hard work by exploiting what the country laws allow instead of eyeing the monies coming into the country to serve specific purposes that require a lot of sacrificing and in the absence of strict adherence to the rules, this seed capital could melt into thin air and it is difficult to say what will happen to the nation that seems to be headed to the right direction.

The Ethiopian PM Blew It Again

The PM blew it at the opposition effort before heading to Copenhagen where he is accused of attaining a mediocre achievement some are calling a sellout. Nevertheless, the fact that the financially strapped advanced world had promised a paltry $10 billion should be looked positively because of what it would enable to accomplish. However, this topic is about what Mr. Melese Zenawi had said concerning working with the opposition in case the oppositions win enough number of seats to force such an arrangement. He said that such an arrangement similar to what is happening in Kenya and Zimbabwe is unthinkable, because opposition parties have their own special agenda that is reactionary if we can borrow a popular terminology of the student movement era that was the cause of where the country is today, where it will be heading in the future, and might deserve some credit for their foresight. However, if there is a grim outlook, it is only TPLF that has a clear vision for the country and knows the direction it should take if we have to prevent waste of time or what we call (weha keda weha melese) in Amharic language. Because it does not make sense to resort to a private agenda bent to look after the interest of a few.

Everyone knows the nation reached where it is now in a haphazard way because if we can sit down and ask those who participated in the movement what was really behind their decisive drive to bring change in the country, they would say that they had a very serious aversion toward the "adharies" or reactionaries and the only way we and others like us would have been satisfied was if we saw their destruction, which was very simple because they were feudal. As feudal they were heavily dependent on what they were getting from the land they had amassed over the years and once that is snatched out of their hand they practically will be immobilized. Such measure had been applied in many communist countries and even if it was not possible to realize a very positive and progressive outcome it was at least possible to eliminate a class structure where there were only a few land owning individuals at the top who were exploiting the others to the point where at one point they could have asked the peasants who were working for them to work only for food and hand over everything else they generated. What that would have been was direct slavery and because of that their being dispossessed of their earthly belongings they amassed in the form of real estate made sense because as members of a feudal system they were backward and did not know other means of making money, in spite of the fact they were claiming to be civilized and advanced.

There was nothing wrong with that, because by bringing a small number of society members to the level of the masses, it had been possible to create some kind of a level playing field and this landholding group would still be ahead of the rest of the peasantry because of their life experience, or even they might have stashed money or other salable items such as a horde of vehicles and household items they can sell and avail themselves cash that could enable them change their situation swiftly. They were allowed at least to continue owning the house they were living in, in addition to a place of work that could be in many forms. There was nothing wrong with it except that as time passes the whole intent of the drive had started to be clear, because the drive might have been after just a change of hands where a landholding group and some of the elite who had direct relation to it could be made disadvantaged with a minimal loss of life. Other than that it was a different version of the same ruling class that felt it was made an outcast and left out from the lucrative wealth-accumulating craze that revolted. The other marginalized ethnic groups in the country were systematically allowed to play roles that were only symbolic, because they did not have the military might nor the expertise to run a country. Therefore, the change they were allowed to enjoy was only noticeable in the countryside where the big majority of the people were farmers and what took place was rationing the available land into small parcels and grant the peasants to own the title of the land that they cannot sell, mortgage, nor rent out. It does not mean they have not enjoyed the freedom they were given because they immediately started working for themselves and they had shown good result so far, although their effort had failed to feed the nation and that failure had been blamed on the population explosion.

Once TPLF/EPRDF took power if there was a very important aspect they introduced, it was that they augmented the level of the freedom the people were enjoying and came up with a federal system where each ethnic group will be fully in charge of what takes place in its own region and will have to work in a federal setup. This was one of the jewels of their achievements and now there are hooligans who are disguising as opposition parties and are determined to ruin this kind of near perfect arrangement because, literally, some people have become displaced simply because they are caught in the a place they probably called their own wrongly and now this group is working hard to deceive the public by claiming that they are the best solution for the problems the country is strapped with. However, most of us know that they are the ones who are responsible for what is happening in the nation because it was their job and responsibility not to take a very radical measure that changed the political and economical landscape of the nation. We cannot also forget they and the country had been rescued from becoming pioneers by being the first nation in the region to go into disarray, where anarchy would have reigned similar to what is taking place in Somalia and our country would have been the first to be where Somalia is today, because once they lost the support they were getting from the Soviet Union because of the change that took place on the global political landscape, they did not have anywhere else to turn to. It would have been unpalatable for the West to work with turncoats who might not even want to apologize for their wrong doing, because they were so arrogant and ignorant, a reality that might have not changed up to now.

And now what is unfortunate is they are the ones what the opposition is going to be made up of, because it had always been a wait and see attitude hoping that TPLF might falter at one point. But that did not happen and will not happen in the foreseeable future, because the way things are done are different and the world that had given the nation its back is no longer doing so. That is badly needed for a nation that is so backward, although it is making all the right advances toward the right direction. Taking a look at what is happening in the agriculture sector alone shows that the nation will start feeding itself if those who have the means and know-how are allowed to tackle the agricultural problem and that has already started taking place.

The problem now is disrupting all this effort is comparable to a daylight robbery, because those who will be benefited from the current opposition activity are not the Ethiopian populace, it could be a few interest groups whose sole drive could be bolstering their own needs. When we look at their number they are laughable and the only reason why they matter is the big majority of the people still do not firmly know what is right or wrong for the nation. In a situation like this some forces could manage to sway the decision making process of people, in this case voters, toward their false claim, and that is the reason why the PM is correct when he said that it is not possible to work with this kind of individuals who are determined to do lots of harm to the unknowing public. This means that the government can always use its veto power to change any unbecoming election outcome.

What this makes very clear is the election exercise could be after all futile, because the public still needs more time to know which is the best direction to follow, since some of the current living condition problems that are afflicting them might make them think that they are on a wrong track, when in fact they are not. To make things worse, as said earlier there are sleek politicians who are rubbing salt on the wound by saying that we have the best solution for you, whereas what they will certainly do is take the nation back to where it was where one ethnic group was having everything under its control, while through the process there will be a few who will be lining up their own pocket, which was the major source of the problem that started all this unstable environment which by itself is another long story that is not possible to go into. For those who want to line up their pocket there is the private sector that is open for everyone. That is why the general public is backward now although they were around for more than 100 years in the same form they are now where a given ethnic group had taken advantage of the situation to advance its own cause only. Currently, it is possible to see them out of charactre wherever they are and are plotting to cause another disruption to take back what had been attained to where it was before TPLF took power and declared a freedom where everyone can live in a federation without no one taking advantage of the others. The outcomes show that 19 years might not be enough to give birth to genuine political parties that have their base in the grass root, not in the camp of the former ruling class no matter what kind of forms or names they are taking or are calling since this group had come very close to qualify the nation as a pioneer to live in a similar chaos Somalia is living in today. That had been averted by the effort of many sources and that had left those who are claiming to be the current oppositions licking their wounds for many years, because no one was hearing from them prior to three months of the 2005 election. Out of a sudden they came out with a CUD banner that required the applying of some unfortunate force to curtail their drive to severely damage the nation, in spite of the fact that no one wants to harm the members of its own society, even if when they are in the wrong side of things.

Therefore, the question that needs answering is and if everyone agrees, all the effort that will be wasted on the coming election should be averted and directed toward a campaign similar to the "zemecha" that will last for another five years with the hope that it will not only be possible to nurture the general public by equipping it how to visualize what is good for its future, but it might also be possible to create the opportunity where political parties could also be nurtured as stated earlier that have their base deeply entrenched in the lives and problems of the big majority of people who are the grassroots instead of being swindled by a small group of elite that is out to avenge TPLF and those who had tried to work with them to better the overall welfare of the nation, as well as their own lives, because not doing so will be allowing a child’s play where soiling oneself with deliberate wrongdoing is tolerated and there is going to be someone who has to pay a high price for the mess that will be created. If we really look at it that is what is happening in the nation, although some of the good achievements might outweigh such outlooks. This is witnessed by the lack of genuine opposition since what the nation has is interest groups that know there is some kind of channel that had been opened and it is up for grabs by anyone who can put oneself in a position to misappropriate it. But the reality is, this channel or source of money or aid or whatever we want to call it is there because those who are giving it out know at least there is a concerted effort to put it to good work. Once that is gone and this corrupt and self indulging individuals get power somehow, it is certain that it will disappear, and through the process some unabashed individuals might get rich and that is not what we want to see happening. That is why there is a police force and law and order around the world because there will always be some groups that want to break the law or take advantage of things. What this means is the coming election is at best an education session where like any fire-drill the participants will get the opportunity to learn new things, because it seems that no one is ready yet to play the opposition role and with all the good intentions, we have failed to bring forward the proper kind of opposition party the country needs, and this is witnessed by the lack of a political party that has its base in the grassroots, not in some urban elite who are hungry to line up their pocket.

The Future of Democracy in Ethiopia

In order to see what kind of democracy would reign in the future, there might be a need to decide what subtle factors have to be looked at. First of all the first requirement of a democratic system is to have a free election so that the people will be able to put in office those they believe will represent them. That being a novel idea, when we look at our country there could be problems that will deter this from happening. One of the problem is the level of the awareness of the electing public, a subject that had been touched many times and the effort should have contributed in making the people become more aware of the fact that if they want to be governed democratically, wishful thinking alone will not be enough, and literally they have to cover the required distance by educating themselves so that they would know how to exercise their rights democracy would readily avail to them. Since the Ethiopian public had been made aware of their inalienable rights many times, the expectation is that from one year to the other and from one election to the other, the kind of decision and choice they will be making should be better than the previous ones, ascertaining that at one point in time, it will be possible for them to be in an opportune position to make the right decisions and choices.

This is important when we look at what is happening in the country where, because of the fact that the rest of the public was not ready, a particular sector of the population, in stead of its small number and inclination had to be given the opportunity to run the affairs of the nation. There is nothing wrong with that except that it speaks loudly that the rest of the population has to cover a given distance within a reasonable time frame, to make themselves ready to be in charge of putting the right kind of representative government in office, in stead of someone putting together a government on their behalf that will be in charge of the day to day affairs of the country. There are merits and demerits when the situation is similar to what is taking place in our country. One of the important merits is it is possible to keep anarchy at bay and avoid becoming a disintegrated system similar to Somalia that is struggling to pick up the pieces after suffering a system breakdown. This means that even if there will be dissatisfaction and disagreement, at least there is a system that represents the country as a whole, since a given nation has to interact with other nations, as well as among different ethnic groups inside its own border in order to avail what it is needed to lead a normal life since what is at stake would be the social, economic, and the political well functioning of a given nation.

The demerit is the selected group in whatever form it is could take total control of the system and could start dictating its wishes, while at the same time taking advantage of the system wrongfully. When that happens a public that is disintegrated and is not ready to take charge of its own affairs into its own hand would not have much in a way of a decisive means to confront such a calamity. This kind of failure could be devastating in a nation such as Ethiopia where there are a good number of ethnic groups that have chosen to harmonize their living and working together since there is not a clear cut majority that will take charge and work for the interest a majority, while giving protection to the interest of the minorities. What is taking place in our country, because of lack of preparedness is some kind of a pyramid is at work, where those at the top are a member of a small ethnic group who could be working to advance their own interest since they know that no systematic opposition to retaliate any wrongdoing would not come their way, because again, there is the lack of preparedness in the nation, although it is changing and it should change steadily.

The other important aspect to pay attention to is the fact that when democracy is reigning in a given country the people will be free to participate in politics and civic life freely without fearing a frenzied administration at the top that could detain them for exercising their democratic rights, because it could be threatened since its priority might be to advance its own cause and has to do everything it can to prolong its grip on power. In reality, although what is taking place in Ethiopia might not be bad, because there are many sources in the country, as well as from outside that are keeping tab on what is taking place, there are still many complaints about many people being detained because of their political orientation, not to mention that there are ample proofs where known political figures had been detained and some of them could still be in detention as prisoners of conscience. This shows that the only remedy for problems like that is introducing a functioning democracy in the country as stated earlier, which is totally dependent on the preparedness of the public. If the public fails to prepare itself on an ongoing basis, there is not going to be anyone to blame, because naturally, everyone has their own interest to put forward, where it is only possible to put a check on such pursuit of self-interest when the whole nation is ready to be counted in.

The biggest problem in our country is there are different ethnic groups that are capable of forming their own country, since a nation such as Eritrea that only has around 5 million people had managed to do so. The reason why they were allowed to go ahead might be that they had demonstrated for the onlookers they have what it takes to be a nation, which means the public was ready to govern itself democratically. When we look at Ethiopia there are three major ethnic groups that have at least 20 million people each and their preference is to live and work together. That is their own choice and no one can impose their will on them. If there is a problem with such a stance it is that they have to be in a position to track if there are groups in the union that are planning to take advantage of the coalition and they have to have some kind of mechanism at their disposal to deter such self-centered drive if it is proven to be at work.

The other most important characteristic of a democracy is people have basic rights that no one should trample. In fact, the main reason why there should be a democracy in a given country is to protect the basic rights of citizens. In a country such as Ethiopia that is very much dependant on what it gets from the outside world, whether the nation is getting aid, loans, grants, or generate income by trading some its of produces or buy what it needs, it will be dealing with nations that abide by an international law and they will require the same from a partner, whether it is a trading partner or whatever form the partnership takes. When that is not the case, when they are made aware of the kind of abuse that is taking place, and the prevalent disregard for law and order in the country, if not immediately, in the long run they would work at severing any existing working relationship with such a nation. To avoid that the rights of all people should be observed where no group should work hard to advance its own interest such as staying in power for as long as possible. If there is anything that will put a check on such malfeasance, it is the awareness level of the people. Although the people might need some help in order to raise their awareness, the major work has to be done by themselves, where they will have to know that they have no choice other than joining the rest of the world that is enjoying a high level of living standard that is the outcome of hard work and systematic investment in time and resources.

The other most important feature of a democracy is the county’s laws should be upheld above anyone else, because laws are impartial and should not give a preferential treatment to anyone, especially in a democracy. Of course, if a given system is not democratic what would apply is those in power would manipulate the law for their own advantage and make it instrumental to pursue their own group interest. This will put others at a disadvantage similar to the complaints that are heard in our country, where the ruling class and its cohorts could be advancing their own interest at the expense of the other citizens. The only way to put a check on such self-directed drives and put a limit on their powers is by introducing a working democracy where laws will be observed and serve everyone’s interest equitably. As stated earlier for that to materialize there would be a need for the preparedness of the people, showing that it is the people who will make a big difference in a given country since governments are temporary service providers that will be replaced without even finishing their term if they fail miserably to meet the public’s expectation. If the majority of the people are satisfied with the system, there is no need to bring about change. If they are satisfied only because they do not know what their rights are, the blame again goes to their lack of preparedness a failure that could only be corrected by the people themselves, because it does not matter how much infusion is getting itself toward them, unless they put it to proper use it will not improve their situation.

Therefore, as usual, the main talk has started revolving around the coming election, and it had been a long time since we started talking about raising the awareness of the people since it is their vote that makes the difference, and this election would reveal how much homework the public had done when they elect their representatives to go to parliament.

Time to Bury the Hatchet

Time is really overdue as far as burying the hatchet is concerned and there could be some groups who might want us to believe that the best way to go is to turn a blind eye to this crucial issue. There were two incidents recently where one source that seemed to be an OLF insider had talked about retiring the white elephant because, for some reason its support base is dwindling fast. The reality on the ground, however, is there are still people persecuted for being members or sympathizers of this organization that failed to live up to expectation for reasons those who are in charge would not admit. For those who are looking inside from the peripheral, this organization might represent a certain group only, probably partial Oromos whose origin is from Wellaga, although it does not mean there are no other participants, albeit they are disgruntled because those who claim the province to be where the party was incepted had always been in the habit of moving their weight around that had irked many Oromos.

After all, since they claim to represent the Oromo people, they have a global recognition among Oromos and others, which means they had been raising fund for the cause they claim are upholding for quite some time now, to the point where some have claimed they are leading a reasonably well off life style. It is difficult to say what exactly goes on in the home front although there is some kind of an armed struggle on the ground that could get help from few supporters such as Eritrea even if the reality again had been Eritrea had worked hard to dismantle the OLA because it had an ambitious plan that was thwarted when it got the cold shoulder from its protégé TPLF. After all, the armed military wing of the group had fought shoulder to shoulder with other movements such as TPLF, EPLF, EPRP, perhaps EDU in order to bring down the Derg. The reason why it is not sharing power with TPLF we were told was because of a fallout since the movement is determined to secede Oromia from the rest of the country and the pressure came from Eritrea to dismantle it because they had other plans if their proteges did not turn the table on them.

That is one assumption while the other is, most Oromos do not have a burning desire or fire to govern the other part of Ethiopia, because they know for certain there is a water and oil do not mix phenomenon, where there might have been some kind of a conventional marriage arrangement, but other than that there are groups in the country that might not be engaged in a fruitful endeavor to see to it that the country that it calls itself Ethiopia would be a place where democracy would reign. That is what some of the Oromos want because their proximity to the northern region might have enabled them to see a flicker of hope that makes them fathom that the possibility that all the ethnic groups can live and work together might be there.

The source that suggested to retire the white elephant that has not still shown a single result other than joining hands with the movement that forced to bring about the fall of the Derg had opted to see it as a vehicle whose useful purpose is approaching its end and it has to be replaced by another one, which must be direct from the assembly line. That might be the first good thing people heard coming from anyone close to OLF in recent years and this individual could be an insider. Some had been demanding such a turnabout for a long time because; it was not difficult to see that the party was not embracing all Oromos. Also the so-called leaders of the liberation front are living away from the people and they do not know what is making them tick, let alone to share in some of the hardships that are besieging them.

Secondly times have changed drastically and a party that has its roots deeply entrenched in the students’ movement similar to TPLF could ran out of fresh ideas to represent the whole Oromo population that could have evolved to a much advanced stage because of what was taking place in the country and among the diaspora. It should have gotten a similar infusion TPLF got from those who wanted to put it in power, but it had failed to generate any interest form outside sources Those who are in Shoa seem to be more competent and are direct competitors for coming up with a similar party if they were not still clinging to the hope that one day the conventional marriage might bear some fruit. We do not have to snuff out such hope because when the fire runs out it will die by its own or if that is not going to be the case, we might live to see some kind of fruition. For now all we can afford to do is to applaud the fact that someone close to OLF has come out in the open saying the time is right to start anew, because that is the only redemption that is available.

The purpose of the new vehicle does not necessarily have to be to liberate Oromia from the rest of Ethiopia. It is difficult to say what its purposes would be at this early stage, since many people, in fact the majority of Oromos have to agree on it. If it is possible to suggest one at this early stage of the dialogue it will be to see that the Oromos would get their proper place in the country where a small group of people are running things now.

Such a suggestion should not forebode any kind of ill will toward those who are struggling to turn around a dreary situation since they deserve the credit if it is due. But the fact that if not the majority ethnic people in Ethiopia, at least Oromos are an ethnic group that have the biggest number that will necessitate their playing a very constructive role in the country and there is no running away or hiding from this reality. Even the OLF members must have realized that and that might be the main reason why they are talking about a new vehicle, because it is overdue. One source recently had tried to poke fun at the effort the group is exerting to secede the Oromia region from the rest of Ethiopia by saying that they are among a few majority groups around the world that are talking about secession, because most majority groups wherever they may be are calling the shots. The Shiites of Iraq, thanks to the Americans have taken their rightful place considering that the difference between these two groups is superficial at least, because they are basically the same people who chose to have different beliefs. But the case in Ethiopia might not be that easy. No matter, what saves the day for the Oromos might be the fact that they are not the majority people in Ethiopia. If we look at the math, to be the majority ethnic group they should number more than 40 million. The reality is they number only around 30 million while the other two major groups the Amaharas and the Southern People each number 20-22 million, the Tigreans 5 million, and the other small ethnic groups will make up for the remaining number. This means that any group that could create a coalition could be the majority and it is open to all ethnic groups. Because of that the fact that they are not in charge of things might not make them look bad unless seen from what an ethnic group with 5 million people is trying to accomplish.

The good news is the time to bury the hatchet is on the horizon and soon there should be a new party that will represent the whole Oromo people even if it is unfortunate that the quarrel is still alive. Very recently the ex-president dressed down OPDO revealing that the antagonism that exists between the south and north is still alive and kicking, because as we know it the ex-president was visiting probably his hometown Dembidolo, but the fact that he is from that province is true, while the majority of the members of OPDO are Oromos form the northern part of the country who were under the employment of the Derg. What this means is at the top level the effort applied by one group to bury the hatchet had been disregarded by a prominent individual such as the ex-president. The reality is there is no harm done except that the members of the Oromo community should be reminded that change is on the horizon and in a few months time we might hear more about the new party that will replace the popular front known as OLF.

The problem is this same ex-president is forming a party that is revered to be the prefect opposition for the next election and the fact that he changed the name from the usual TPLF/EPRDF to OPDO/EPRDF that might be a first, would suggest that he is not aware of the effort that has undergone to bury the hatchet and such an approach to politics might disqualify him from being fit for the ticket that will make him equal partner with the ex-defense minister who might also be out to punish TPLF with whom he had been struggling in the woods. Because he was swayed to enrich himself wrongfully, he had to be incarcerated to show the public TPLF members do not tolerate such behavior let alone to be caught in the act themselves. Because of that, he might also be out to pick a bone with TPLF. If that is the case the possibility that whatever they will try to accomplish would defeat its purpose is there, because it is difficult to say a feud among politicians is the best way to go, since they would be better off if they focus on the task that will await them that will require every hand and support they will get. TPLF is showing result because picking a bone had not been its priority although the party had been besieged and is still being bombarded by the members of the former ruling class. If the party’s preoccupation had been that, it is possible that it could have shown cracks a long time ago that could brought about its downfall.

What this means is, if the ex-president takes such a swing at the very early stage of forming a party, what is he going to do when he is in power where he could portray OPDO as OLF and he could send anyone who has or had an affiliation with it to prison. Such minor mistake could make or break his effort to build the needed political party that should be very much above political bickering and focus on the issues that have proven to be untamable.

Explanation Is Needed

Why would a certain product that used to cost a certain price in a previous point in time would cost higher when buying it at a latter date? In the world of manufacturing so many things could trigger the rise in price. The material cost could go up because the retrieving cost of the material that goes into the product could go up for reasons such as higher wage demand by employees, higher taxes by local governments, higher excise taxes by the importing countries, higher transportation cost because of high gas price etc. which all can have a domino effect and could result in hiking up prices of goods. In fact, one of the reasons why there will be recession in the advanced countries that have a plethora varieties and amount of goods and services could be because of this main reason. At the beginning there will always be a recession that will slowly become a boom where everyone will start making money and will have lots of disposable income they can spend on buying goods and services. Eventually, what would change such a pleasant atmosphere always is, whether it is greed or a natural order that has to come around, businesses will continue to raise their price to soak up the excess money that is floating around since it is a boom and everyone is making more money. At one point, consumers would find the price hike to be too high and would slowly decrease their spending, which will affect business directly, because whatever they are coming up with does not have a large number of buyers, similar to when they were pricing their goods reasonably. When they cannot sell their goods and services it does not make sense to keep employees because they cannot afford to pay them, then what is known as layoff would become common. When businesses fail to show profit for two consecutive quarters that will be the harbinger of recession or it is possible to say an economy is in a recession.

Something like this had happened in the USA, for example, where the housing price was reasonable at the start and people were buying everywhere. But that price would not stay at a given level since it will start creeping upwards and people will start to stop buying to the point where there will not be anyone who wants to buy houses anymore even if there are many willing sellers who would want to sell their houses for various reasons. The only way they can sell their houses would be by bringing down the price and once that spiral had started the price of properties will start going down fast and those who want to come out of their mortgaged arrangement for various reasons, such as losing their job have no choice other than selling at the lower price that will erode the equity in their property. When that is the case people cannot pay their mortgage because they have lost their jobs and there is so much low price they can accept. In a situation like this the only alternative they have would be to stop paying their mortgages that would be followed by disclosure and this could happen in a big number around the country, and this had taken place, more or less, in the USA where lenders ended up having properties no one wants to buy and that became to be known as toxic assets.

But when we look at food prices especially livestock it is difficult to say why they should cost as much as they are costing in Ethiopia. A rooster could fetch between 70-100 bir while sheep could cost as much as 1000 bir in a country where the average salary earner could be making between 400-500 a month. Even if people are making 1000 bir a month paying their one month salary for one food item is unacceptable. The question now is livestock are still eating the same staple from time immemorial unless their breeders want to feed them different kinds of feeds as it is done in the advanced countries, and that could cost more money that should be passed to the buyers. In our country the feed for the livestock is grass and they drink water mostly from rivers, lakes, and springs in some cases. The price of those items or their availability had not been altered, because if there is drought the particular region affected will find it difficult to raise livestock since the water and the greenery would disappear and such a region or community would be dependant on the aid it gets from outside sources such as the government or other sources such as the UN or other foreign governmental agencies, because in almost all cases they will lose their livestock for the calamity.

However, if there is one thing that might make the livestock traders sell their animals for such a high price it might be demand and supply, where because of the high population there is shortage. In a situation like this the reason why the price should go high while the other factors the livestock are dependant upon for existence such as grass and water remains the same is the profit motive where they want to make as much as possible out of the dreary situation. It is difficult to say it is right or wrong, because at one point, when the buyers cannot afford the price and cannot buy what the livestock traders are asking, they have either to bring down the price or they will continue to do as they are doing currently, where they would complain about the lack of buyers since they fail to sell as much as they wanted, with the exorbitant price they are charging. The outcome here is there is a natural mechanism that will provide a correction, which is the inability of the buyers to pay the money they are asked. No one who is working in the country and is being paid what the average salary is cannot afford to pay the above mentioned prices whether it is for the holidays or for the regular days and to make things worse the body needs a certain amount of protein in order to function properly.

All kinds of food items that are source of protein and other essential minerals such as calcium and vitamins are costing the same exorbitant price, where, for example, a recent article that originated from the country had stated that a single egg could cost more than 1.45 bir, which is still cheap by some Western countries standard. Because a carton of 12 eggs might cost between $2-$3 depending where it is bought, showing that the price in Ethiopia is still cheaper. The same applies to butter where one kilo costs 100 bir. The problem here is it does not make economic sense, because when charging for a product or service what should be taken into account is the cost incurred to bring that product or service into the market. As it was discussed earlier since grass and water are things that occur naturally, and if there is a need to buy hay it should not cost that much since it has to be priced according to the nation’s standard.

If there is a problem here, the traders back in the country are trying to take full advantage of the situation by charging, it is difficult to say how many times more than the cost they are incurring. Because if there was shortage and their price was reasonable they would not say that they cannot sell what they brought into the market, but the reality is there is excess livestock no one can afford to buy. They should know what kind of salary people are getting in the first place and then they should take into consideration the cost they are incurring to bring the livestock into the market. On top of that they are expected to make a certain amount of profit that is reasonable for the standard of the people who need what they are bringing into the market for survival, not luxury.

The question that should be raised here is there might be a need for some kind of government intervention where these traders should be approached by the authorities to explain why they are charging such a high price. One incident in the article had shown that a trader who demanded 800 bir for a sheep had agreed to bring it down to 350 bir showing that he could be making a huge profit even selling for 350 bir, while maybe between 30-50 bir could have covered his cost and gives him a reasonable profit. When that is the case, everyone would be happy, and individuals will not be forced to go without what they need in order to lead a healthy and productive life.

This means that there must be something that should give where, for example, the government should have a hand in supplying the nation with what it needs in a form of livestock, because the possibility is the market had been manipulated and abused by greedy traders. The accumulation of such failures in the part of the government in office will make it look bad, since it seems that they really do not care about the public, while they could also be robbing the same public by selling them fertilizers for a very high and exorbitant price, the reason why they would be forced to turn a blind eye to what the traders are doing.

Some sources had highlighted that most of the projects that had been undertaken, in the country, especially in a form of constructing housing are out of the reach of the people, because earning 1000 bir might not come easy for everyone since the average earning in the nation is half of that. As election approaches, these kinds of shortcomings could become good ammunition for the opposition, because anyone who is in charge of running the country has to face such realities where even if the people want many things in order to raise their standard of living, without the basics such as proper diet, their existence would harbor hardship, not to mention that their life expectancy and health would be badly affected and could have a repercussion for generations to come. Any future government that cannot come up with a quick solution for the problems that are plaguing the people because of the farming system that has become not only dysfunctional, but it is trying to make profit at the expense of the normal existence of the citizens should be sent packing.

The Parallel Lines

The parallel lines in the Ethiopians life are not relenting. What that indicates is there is a need to build bridges that will cross or connect those thinking parallel lines that are continuing into an uncertain future, because it is possible that they could put the nation and those who are on the wrong thinking parallel line at a disadvantage where there might be a point of no return. There had always been different camps in the country that were willing to reconcile, at least some of their differences, but lately the drive seems to be very determined to get something that is not really that evasive to speculate. The dwellers of the various camps seem to have created parallel lines that will not allow having any means of accessing each other for eternity. In real life, what this would mean is unless those who are following one of the parallel lines get what they want, there will not be any reconciliation. It is difficult to say this will benefit the nation or not because when looking at the determination level, everyone is fully confident that what they are doing is the right thing for the nation, for themselves, and for the rest of the Ethiopians.

The members of the various camps are brandishing their raison d’etre that made them to choose and belong to the various camps that have become parallel lines with no hope of creating any kind of positive and constructive connection. If we look at modern roads they can cover vast distance by going opposite directions, but there are intersections wherever there is a need for them so that it will be possible to cross the roads that go opposite directions in order to enter other feeding roads or it might even be possible to merge in the one that goes the opposite direction if the traffic situation allows it. That is how normally things should work, but if we look at two thinking parallel lines unless both of them or one of them bend or get slanted they cannot cross each other or other lines to connect them should be drawn similar to roads to create connection or bridges. In the absence of that, they would continue to remain parallel lines no matter how far they are going to be stretched. While being parallels, they will continue to do whatever they think is right similar to what is happening in the Ethiopian community currently. Because for anyone who tunes into what is happening in the Ethiopian community, it is obvious that they will encounter the thinking parallel lines that seem to be determined not to reconcile.

When there is a situation like that the onlookers could either be swayed to whatever diatribe each camp is coming up with or they might take their time and make their own informed decision. It could be difficult to recommend which camp would be better to belong to, because the reasons for belonging in each camp differ and it is mostly based on ethnic line in our case where there is a determined group that is out to put itself in the shoes of those who are running things in the country, while those who are in charge of things in the country are brandishing their achievements. In all this, the nation is chugging along even if it will always be strapped with problems that could be beyond its resources and ability to rectify in the near future. But if things continue like they are currently it is not going to be long before the country solves its problems, because it seems that most of the shortcomings and solutions had been identified.

For example, the country is heavily dependent on rain for its main economic backbone, and if for natural reasons there is no rain one season the consequence could be severe. The solution for this had been known for many years and the fact that those who are in charge are aware of it and are in the process of coming up with man-made solutions such as irrigation that is necessary and the fact that the nation has plenty of underdeveloped water resources that could be put to work to solve the problem would make the job easier.

There is, however, a problem of resources to make this a reality and it could take time to undertake such projects similar to what is happening to the number of dams that are built to accomplish several purposes. There is no reason why these same dams cannot be used for irrigation purposes provided that there is enough water, which is the likelihood. In a situation like this the fact that a new American president is in office would not mean anything negative, because the Ethiopian government has the blueprint and all it might want could be the know-how and the financing to make such projects a reality. The reason why this is important is accusing those who are in charge in the country is losing its teeth, because it seems that there are experts from all over the world that are working to solve the nation’s problem. In a situation like this, ethnic strife of any kind would not make a dent on such effort.

The main problem in the country is the outcome of population explosion and the failure of the current agriculture system to produce what the 80 million plus people (not 80 million minus, which would have been another solution) need for sustenance. If there is something the outside world has to be shown it is this failure, because there is readily available solution for it and it could be corrected within a decade or two for good if the appropriate measures are taken. However, firstly there is no guarantee that there will be someone from outside who can undertake the whole project and show the required results, because there could be internal nemesis that will naturally interfere. There is politics where for whatever reason there might be a certain interest group that will feel threatened if a given geographical region becomes successful in its farming endeavor since not all locations or regions are fit to a large mechanized farming. If we assume that there will not be such problems, unless the effort originates from within, every nation has its own problems to tackle, especially at this juncture where even the rich and advanced countries are trying to revive their own economy that is plagued by recession. In fact, even if their problem is temporary and could be corrected soon, it does not mean the outside world would be in a position to solve our problem, because it is vast and it could only be done by the indigenous people who have to solve their own problem at their own pace.

What this would demonstrate is there are many sources that are barking the wrong tree where they spend their time, energy, and resources to make the administration in our country look bad instead of creating a synergy to solve the nation’s problem. In this case, no matter what kind of opposition there is from outside that is giving all sorts of names to the local administration, the reality is it is a waste of time and resources that will divide the diaspora because everyone, more or less, has come to know the government is doing the right things and might be unmatched by anyone for a long time to come, in spite of some of the claimed malfeasance that cannot be proven in the court of law or even to justify a given claim and accusation. The reason for that had been attributed to the kind of coordinating role the government had been playing for a long time by involving various experts from all parts of the world. It is enough to look at what kind of investment they are attracting, as one recent investment alone had promised to create one million jobs and that is unheard of in Africa.

Therefore, even if there are grievances about the country being run by a very few minority group and there still are areas that require more systematic approaches, the fact that there might not be others who will take the place of this minority group and perform at their level of integrity would mean that people have to work hard to attain such a level and goal. If we want democracy in the country it will have to be a working democracy where there will be able bodied individuals who are able to assume responsibility to advance the cause of democracy, instead of looking over their shoulders while lining up their pockets. Because of that more than any other reason, no one will listen to the tired claim and demand where it seems that there are determined individuals who will be asking governments such as the USA to give them license to rob the nation. It does not mean anyone in his or her right mind will allow such a thing, but it is not fair to try to manipulate people like this, especially the unfortunate diaspora and such individuals should be openly condemned and should be coerced to join forces in order to create a synergy that will try to solve the nation’s problems such as what was mentioned above.

Anyone approached with a noble purpose would at least be elated because no one is trying to dupe him or her in a broad daylight or waste their time. If what is needed is democracy in the country it is not the trees, the birds, or the other creatures in the woods that will make it reality, it is the people. From what we are seeing, some people are falling behind and we have to do our best to help them, because what they are doing could shift time, energy, and resources to useless efforts instead of putting them to good use. And it is never too late to change a theme since it could be done overnight, especially in our time where people are highly interconnected.

Where Was Everybody?

It has become customary to condemn the current administration that should have not been where it is in the first place if there had been capable people in the country, especially among those who were in charge of governmental affairs before they were ousted. Because they did not have what it takes, they somehow allowed these hungry guerillas into office. Whether everyone wants to admit it or not, they have done a lot to the country to the point where it is difficult to imagine where the country would have been if these loathed individuals were not allowed to reconstruct the government. While they were doing so the previous ruling class did not have any idea of what they were doing for a long time. We can attribute their success to the kind of consulting they were getting since they were handpicked by nations such as the USA to replace the so called ruling class of the previous regime, which itself had removed and eliminated another government by another version of the same ruling class that seemed to be better equipped than both these regimes if it were not entangled in its own problems that it found difficult to untangle itself from in a timely fashion and ended up being fodder to an ill educated, prepared, and equipped military people.

Wherever we turn to we hear about the evil the people in office are doing to the people and the nation from sources that cannot accomplish a small portion of what these people have accomplished. In reality, someone who knew the secret of the nation and had some grudge on the earlier ruling class had really humiliated the people by putting them under the rule of an ethnic group that was despised in a sense, not to mention their small number, although the Tigreans individually had always been more than average achievers when compared to the other ethnic groups that were taking part in running the country, by always taking the backseat. In fact, they always knew that their chance of taking the driver’s seat in what is happening in the country was non-existent. That might be why they thought the best solution for their problems was to attain their independence so that they will get the driver’s seat in their own country that they would separate from the mainland Ethiopia.

That is what the Eritreans exactly did since they are the masters of their own house currently and they are another group that would have not attained the driver’s seat in Ethiopia despite the fact that they are not suffering from any ethnic clamp that interferes with their decision-making process. In spite of that their chance of getting the driver’s seat in Ethiopia would have been almost nil unless they encounter a chance similar to TPLF where everyone would agree that, considering the kind of about-face the nation needed at the time when the Derge went down the drain, they could have been willing to give a chance to any incumbent group that comes forward, is well-organized, and is willing to shoulder the responsibility. A situation like that could allow a laissez faire attitude to be entertained where if there is someone who is eager to take the helm when the nation was down and almost out, let them be given a chance and the rest of the judgement would be made as things started to unravel and in that contest TPLF had outdone EPLF because of reasons that have to do with the fact that they changed their course and decided to liberate the whole nation instead of packing up and leaving the rest of the union, whereas that was the top demand on the list for the Eritreans. The important point to make here is when things started to unravel the group that got access to the drive’s seat of the government had to have some method of doing things whether that method is popular or not, the only requirement being it has to be somehow effective and avail what the nation requires.

The other area that requires looking at is the fact that TPLF were not really welcome, although there was a consensus that they should be allowed to turn around things until other alternatives were available. The other fact that put the blimp behind them was the kind of loathe the earlier ruling class managed to whip up by the simple virtue of how they were doing things. The most important cause that gained them such a loathe was what they did to the members of the Imperial regime where they killed many prominent individuals with no due diligence or court appearance. It is difficult to say that they would deserve that kind of treatment or not, but if any nation does that kind of savagery on human beings, especially on individuals who were responsible for running the governmental machine that had a universal support, it is not difficult to imagine the kind of fallout they will be engulfed with. That regime got lucky because they were able to strike friendship with the other world power since there was a cold war we all know about that was the outcome of the coming into existence of two camps.

What this will show us is, it does not matter who, especially in Ethiopia, anyone that will get the driver’s seat, which is the responsibility of running the government will always be caught with their hand in the jar, because governments have a big number of sources that will send different kinds of financial packages their way. At some point, it will be difficult to say any group that is in charge of a government will do things at the similar level that we see in the Western countries mainly, because these leaders that attain power in most developing nations are not where they are by the will of the people. They are there because the nation needed some kind of an administration, without which it will become another Somalia. Everyone knows that. The problem is once they are at the helm they have some inherent way of doing things, as Western governments that are made in charge of the government by the people have also their own inherent way of doing things. If we look at the number of the educated people in a given nation such as Ethiopia and any given Western country the figures is a direct reverse of each other. This means that in the USA for example 90 percent of the people could be said to be educated where the remaining 10 percent could be functionally illiterate, but they still know what takes place and can form an opinion, whereby deceiving and manipulating even that 10 percent is not possible.

When we come to our country if 10 percent of the population is educated that will be a very high figure and for the rest of the population this group is responsible to do the right things on their behalf. While doing the right things everyone could have their own style of doing things. We have seen a few styles in our lifetime. We have seen how a monarchy works where the system emulates hard to create some kind of harmony in the nation and among numerous group with varied interests so that everyone could mind their own business and as head of state those in charge will be responsible for introducing changes and developments. Since they have unwavering acceptance by the majority of their subjects, because the kind of system they are running emulates to give everyone equal opportunity, what will take place was what we have seen where the nation was much better off economically, politically, and socially because there is not a highly pronounced and contested ethnic strife even if there are pockets of resistance.

The military regime took power because of grievances that everyone became aware of and what the majority of the people wanted was to see those grievances addressed. The military junta that took power, struggled to justify what it is doing while it was on power, and it was the worst performer of the regimes, when we include the current regime. It is difficult to speculate where it would have made it if its demise was not expedited, where other than rectifying some of the grievances that brought communism into the country it is difficult to pinpoint anything it had accomplished in the nation when compared with the two regimes.

The current regime is feasting on a kill that it snatched from another ruling class as we know it considering that the Tigreans for the most part were enjoying whatever opportunity was available for them, even if some of them, because of being badly dissatisfied with the system had gone into the woods and were guerilla fighters. This means that they were dissidents of a high order who found the former regime dragging its foot, got help by the world powers who were at the scene, and their taking power was facilitated by them. Once they were at the helm we do not have to forget that they are surrounded by a sea of people who do not want them there if they can afford it, but they could not, and once they are ushered into office it was too late. The reason for that was they were able to cover some distance quickly and came a long way thanks to what they were able to surround themselves. Because of that bickering might not be the best way to go since that is not the main concern here. The main concerns are there is law and order in the country, there is a functioning economy, there is a civil society that goes after its own interest and the only time anyone will encounter problem is if they become politically active with an intent to put themselves in the shoes of these people and in the business world there could always be a turf war as it is common anywhere else and it should not spill over into the media.

What this reveals is what the country now needs is a peaceful power transfer. But such effort is in a limbo because the country is not yet ready. The nation has to continue swallowing the bitter pill because it is not ready; it is not because TPLF is super tough or super intelligent. The truth is still there is not a coordinated group that will fill their shoes in spite of the talk that there used to be a more able ruling class in the country, in fact there were not. If there were they had been good at falling out of bed with very crucial partners and they did not have the tact to make it back to formal relationships with key partners the reason why they have to languish like everyone else, because to be honest, they did not have what it takes. If they become in charge there is no reason why they would not go back to bone picking and that will bring to a halt the small achievement the nation has realized so far. It does not mean the TPLF group has what it takes either, although the level they are at is much better than before where there are a big number of developmental projects that had been started or are being started and it is these kinds of projects that will take the nation forward in the long run as they will create economic activity, employment, wealth, etc. This means that people cannot live by bickering alone, they have to be dealers and wheelers where they have to strive to get acceptance by others, especially by those who have the means. TPLF had restored the relation the nation had with the outside world to the same level where the topnotch diplomat Emperor Haile Selase had raised it and the number of friends the nation has is reaching its epic. Looking the PM himself hobnobbing with the world top leaders is enough signal for the Ethiopians that the nation is already back on the right track.

Amid all this success, we do not have to forget that there are others who are eyeing the possibilities that had been created in the county are ripe for exploitation and could be plotting to put their hands on this lucrative opportunity, the reason why they are besmirching the current government that undeniably could be rewarding itself for saving the country from the verge of collapse. People cannot forget who the earlier ruling class for the last 100 years were and what kind of advantage they had at their disposal, while the rest of the nation was languishing, and it seems that they might not have a small fraction of decency the TPLF has because they were blinded with confidence that emanated from a small accomplishment they managed to attain by turning around a backward nation to look toward the developed word, nothing more than that and for doing that what they were appropriating for themselves was too high compared to TPLF who are trying to make a difficult situation workable. At the same time it is only natural when there is animosity, or it is much preferable if it is looked at as competing interests especially in a democracy, it is not possible to lineup the key posts with those that have a direct competing interest although that could change in a democracy.

The problem is the kind of democracy where only around 10 percent of the population know exactly what the nation needs would mean that this 10 percent should make a lot of sacrifice in order to see this figure climb. When that happens all factors such as the productivity level of the people and their awareness will also rise enabling everyone to focus on the economic well being of the people instead of aspiring to repeat what every third world country is trying to eliminate, which is replacing one elite group by another so that it will be the turn of a new group to line up its pocket. It will continue to do so until another elite group manages to topple it and it will continue to line up its pocket and the spiral or cycle cannot be broken easily, even if the effort is exactly that. That is why everyone is praising South Africa and other few African countries who managed to practice what democracy is preaching, although, for the most part, it is the same elite group that will be in charge under a different leader and the fact that they will be doing the right thing will always be in doubt.

Because of that, anyone who calls himself/herself genuine Ethiopian should be concerned about is how could it be possible to replace this administration with another administration that is equipped with what it takes to prevent the system from being hijacked by those who would not hesitate to line up their pockets as it had been and is still endemic to third world country elite, although it is changing in many places. What will bring about the needed change in our country might be two things. The first one is the few elite in the country have to be ready and willing to sacrifice their own interest and work for the nation and the people, and if that is coupled with a well educated and informed public that knows what it wants and knows who to put in office, knows how to organize itself to take advantage of its democratic rights we could say, not only in Ethiopia, but in most third world countries that might be exploited by similar usurpers that they are taking steps in the direct direction.