A Crisis is in the Making

The Ethiopians’ intervention in the dispute between the two Somali groups might be uncalled for, although as a government they can choose what kind of administration to reign in the neighboring Somalia simply because it will affect all the neighboring countries that is the Horn of Africa. The choice might not be theirs alone as it involves their partners, the Americans who are bent to provoke the Islamists and dismantle them militarily. Their simple justification is they are accomplices to Al Qaeda, an accusation the Islamists are denying. That is all they can do, demonstrate to whomever is steadfast to believe that they have a relation with the terrorist group that they have nothing to do with, because the whole world is up in arms to put down terrorism. That is why it is to their advantage not to have anything to do with any terrorist group as it is not worth the consequence.

Other than that, it seems everyone is making a mistake because Somalia is not going to be the only nation that is going to be administrated by Muslims. There are more than a dozen such countries, and what is expected of them is to tone down their fundamentalism and as well, keep clear from subversive activities, because they must have seen the outcome where a big number of people had lost their lives.

The problem with a Somali nation that is functioning well might be the rekindling of the greater Somalia aspiration that would not sit well with the three neighboring sovereign states namely Djibouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia. However, Somalia under Siad Barre had ceased its menacing even if it was under a fairly well functioning administration and that reason has to be highlighted, because there was a war between the two countries in around 1977 that was won by the Ethiopians. This means the reason why the Somalis did not go foul with Ethiopia was simply because they were aware of their military power.

The lesson could be learned from this might be even if there could be a looming threat that will take a while to take shape as the nation is at a very early stage of picking up the pieces of its turbulent immediate past, by simply putting the Ethiopian military at a varied stages of alerts, whatever threat that materializes could easily be subdued. Such a hypothesis will literally undermine what the government of Ethiopia could be doing in Somalia, because whatever way it is looked at, both are the same people. The fact that the provisional government seemed to be more tuned in into what is happening politically has made it the better choice, but this preferential treatment does not make those who are in charge less Somalis or less Muslims. What that means is when the opportune time arrives there is no reason why the greater Somalia aspiration will not be rekindled because that just happened to be a Somali outlook no Somali will discard.

This draws attention to the serious problem of the Somali nationals that is deeply engrained on a clan system that is not at all functional as everyone is aware of it, because the nation cannot partition itself into small clusters that is made up of several hundred people that are armed to look after their own interest. That is fragmentation at a very high level and cannot be productive in any way. In addition, the assumption here is the Muslim brotherhood might enable them to put this clan mentality to the backburner and unite them under one banner, it might not matter what it is as long as it brings them together. From there on, those who are able politicians like the members of the provisional administration will have to share power equally with the Islamists, because they are much popular than any group in the country and they have the military might as well as the number to win any confrontation with their foes.

Therefore, the measure the Ethiopian government is taking is not clear because it does not serve any purpose, which means it should not be involved at any level, and whatever is claimed to have crossed into Somalia should have stayed behind the border defending it and they retaliate only when there is a provocation. However, it does not mean that the Ethiopian government cannot declare war on another nation if it sees it fit and the method it uses does not necessarily have to be clear to the onlookers. Yet, since there is going to be human life sacrifice, as well as resources that would be better spent on other urgent needs, they have to be careful with every measure they take as an elected government, since it could backfire on them.

Other than that taking a preemptive measure by governments is not a new thing as we have seen Israel had caused a lot of damage on Lebanon for a reason that does not justify the measure taken. At the end of the day they will be accountable for their action as there is an international force that will retaliate, as that is also in the making in the case of Somalia because very soon a UN force could be deployed into Somalia, most probably making all the effort futile. Nevertheless, governments have to take certain measures that are not popular in the name of national interest and the administration in office is in such a precarious position even if sending the army into Somalia is a hasty decision.

Different onlookers could have different interpretation of what is taking place and for some, the best way out is to leave the Somalis alone to solve their problems by their own mechanisms, even if it is going to mean the so called weak provisional government will be dissolved and absorbed into the Islamic movement. From then on it will take a long time before they become well organized and be in a position to fight three well organized, run, and armed nations to realize their aspiration, but it is not possible to stop the saber rattling as everyone will have to live with it without jumping the gun for every threat that is uttered. This means it might be better if the Ethiopian government gradually abandons its drive to put the provisional government into office because it would not avail any guarantee what so ever since it will end up being an administration that is run by the Somalis that have the same aspiration of the greater Somalia.