Ethnic Fragmentation and the 2010 Election

Among the many things no one wants to address in public is the fragmented ethnicity of the nation. It is obvious that those who are avoiding it like a plague are those who are waiting for the opportune time to exploit the shortcoming, like Minilik did. In the meantime, the nation will continue to go hurting because most of the problems that are afflicting it are related to ethnicity. One of the serious mistakes people had been making, even it they might become aware of it after a lot of damage is done is this deep-seated belief that had been engrained from centuries back where the people that are inhabiting the land are all migrants, which means nobody gave them legal status to be where they are today. They came and they intermarried with the locals, because there is nowhere that says when the people of the Axumite kingdom came south when the surroundings of their region was overused and exhausted, they had to face confrontation from the indigenous people of the region they moved into. What happened was they intermarried and eventually they melted into the mainstream society.

The same had happened when the Sabeans that were trading with the early Ethiopians wanted to remain in Ethiopia because they lost their domination over the Read Sea, they were welcome, and all they had to do was to intermarry with the locals and they became the Axumites.

If we go to the southern part of the country, it is possible that there could have been some migrants that came from the far southern part of the continent because the inhabitants of the region were all nomads. That meant there was no border for them, the only thing that attracts them was green pasture and the availability of water, and it is possible that they were going back and forth for a long period of time before they started settling down and became farmers eventually.

What this shows is there were no set of rules that everyone was following purposely and knowingly like what is happening today, because everything was naturally done. As we know it boundary is the byproduct of the Western influence. It does not mean there were no expeditions because those who were migrating south, the Axumites were aware of the advantages of getting better lands, and there are enough proofs that show that they had made contacts with the people in the south. There might have been small settlements, but the colonizing aspect of the southern part of the country was not contemplated before Minilik. The nation had many powerful kings, even without mentioning Tewodrose and Yohanes, which means, it is possible to go back even if they were weakened at around the Age of the Princes. At the time of Giragne Ahmed, we know that Libnedingle was known to be a refugee king all his life in his own territory, which means it was Giragne Ahmed who first instigated expanding to the northern territories, and he did it in the name of religion, not to expand territory or to occupy other peoples land. He just wanted to convert the northern Christians into Islam.

Which means it was only Menilik who had an intention and drive for territorial expansion. In addition, the reason might have been because of what he had inherited from his predecessors that was a locality that did not have deep-rooted settlement. When that is the case what would happen is there are not many people that are working the land or raising livestock. Those who were the followers of Minilik were more or less roving soldiers that did not grow their own food even if there might had been a sparsely populated farming community, and they did not have anyone to supply them with food and the like. It must have been a matter of death and life and literally what no one wants to talk about is they were first class cattle raiders when they started out, because they all had to feed themselves.

That kind of drive, however, had a lot of ramification that is responsible for what Ethiopia is today. We can assume that there are four major ethnic groups in the country and according to their number, the Oromos are the largest population in the nation. The second largest population are the Amharas, the third ones are the Sothern Nations, which are not far behind the Amharas, except that they are not made up of one ethnic group and the Southern Nation is a geographical region, and of course, the fourth ones are the Tigreans, it does not matter
whether we include the present Eritreans or not, because there were times they used to be counted as Ethiopians and basically they are Tigreans.

The problem here is there are at least five kinds of Amharas and if we start counting there are Gonderas, Gojames, Wello, Northern Shoa, and the Addis Abebans who are the offshoot of the Northern Shoans. This is a fact even if no one wants to address it in public, because there is no need to do so. The same goes with the Oromos, there is Welega, Arussi, Bale, Kefffa, Harari, and Shoa and there are a good number of Oromos in Wello too, the Yeju Oromos were from Wello for example.

When we talk about the Tigreans there is no such difference even if Eritreans have different ethnic and religion groups, but it did not prevent them from calling themselves Eritreans even if there definitely is a power struggle and since they are not with Ethiopia it is not going to be our concern here. What this reveals is the only reason why the Tigreans are doing what they are doing is because they do not have differences among themselves, and even if there is, it could easily be reconciled, because everyone is aware of that there are some Tigreans that are condemning the PM and his cronies, but it is not a threatening difference that will interfere with what they are doing.

As long as they have that advantage they will continue to play the role they are playing now, which is a small minority group governing the big majority of the people. Even if arms is involved here it is secondary, which means unless they somehow have a far reaching support from around the country they definitely would find it difficult to run the nation. Since arms is involved here, it is going to take a while for them to become democratic unless they are pressured to do so, and still they are not challenged the right way. The last election was simply a scramble for power as far as parties like CUDs were concerned and the rest of the smaller parties were not ready. It is also difficult to say when they will be ready.

What is obvious here is Ethiopia is not going to be the only nation where there is a minority rule, because in world history there were a few incidents where outsiders had to be invited to run a nation because there were irconcileabe differences among the indigenous people. At least in our case it was possible to find a local ethnic group that is a minority and with the right preparation and support they were able to take the power from the then faltering Derge, that will always be remembered to be the representative of the Amharas, which are the continuation of Minlik even if Derge had tried to show a different kind of the same coin.

When we talk about the Tigreans there are few groups that do not like what they are doing, and people that have a much bigger number than them like the Amharas are grumbling, not only because of their number, but the role they are playing used to belong to them, and they are dead set to take it back. The other ethnic groups would prefer to work with the Tigreans because they have met their requirements better than the Amharas would ever do and since everyone, including the Tigreans have labeled the Amharas as oppressors, except the onetime oppressors, the rest of the nation is, more or less, doing what it exactly wants to do, minding its own affair without the intervention of someone else.

Which means what is addressed here is not harboring a burning desire to get rid of the Tigreans who are said to be doing a good job even if their natural foes would not want them to do things better than they were doing. The question is will the other ethnic groups be in a position to sort out these ethnic differences and create a genuine front, not for the sake of getting rid of the Tigreans, but for combating the social, political, and economical problems that are engulfing the nation. It is not only that, danger could be looming if we want to entertain the possibility that if the Amharas could be able to mange to take the power from the existing regime, because they are making all sort of promises for anyone who will help them do that. If they succeed, we have to rest assured that the first thing they will do is dismantling what had been done under the existing regime. That is going to include the regional freedom everyone is enjoying now, which will take a long time to show a permanent result could be a thing of the past unless everyone is ready to defend their own territory individually, as a region, and
then join hands as a nation.

Here, the intent is not to make the Amharas look bad, but they will have to change their long-held outlook for the good of the whole nation, and the best way to resolve the problem is democratically. Because usurping power whenever the situation permits it is not a solution for the nation and if that is how they still look at things they will continue to be a liability. Hence, it is difficult to say, out of hand, what the perfect solution or the silver bullet for solving the problems the nation is strapped with.

We have been touching on many possibilities that will have to be looked at in tandem in order to change the
nation’s situation and this is going to be one of them. And the nation, while at the same time trying to solve some of its problems, it will also have to look at the ethnic fragmentation issue that is besieging it, because it will continue to be a handicap on any advancement the nation is going to make. Due to that the nation has to be run by a minority ethnic group that does not necessarily have anything better than the other groups except to be small in number and, more or less, united.

They cannot continue to rule the nation for a long time, because it might not be good for the psyche of the people, especially for their foes, since the rest of the nation seems to be somewhat appreciative of the role they are playing, because there is no one who will replicate what they are doing as they are gluing a nation that could have drifted apart. The Oromos are divided among themselves and there might be individual Oromos or groups that are suffering from the same kind regionalism problem like the other ethnic groups, especially the Amharas are suffering from, which is a huge hindrance for the coming together of the whole ethnic group and play a meaningful and responsible role.

Of course, it is much easier for the Amharas to bridge their differences when compared to the Oromos if they are not focused on a wrong future for the nation, namely an Amhara hegemony. The Southern Nations might be less inflicted with such problems but they might need time and experience to assume the nation’s leading role, and while they are in the process they could learn a lesson, on what regionalism and being stubborn could mean.

In concluding, if the majority are saying that it is time to bring in a new government into office that is representative of the whole nation, at least looking at this problem might avail a solution to the ethnic fragmentation that might derail the future of democracy in the country. Even if the existing regime is proving that it is cut to do the job for life, it will be good for the nation if democracy is practiced the right way, because there will not be many things that will go wrong. However, to let an experienced hand lead the nation until the right time comes is also another possibility, but still there might be problems that will be eliminated for good if a democratically elected government takes charge at least every ten years.