A Move in the Right Direction
The latest interesting news is emanating from the TPLF/EPRDF camp and the PM is said to be ready to hand over his post for the next PM who does not have to be a Tigrean and people have even gotten a glimpse of who might be the next PM. What this would ascertain on one hand is, what is taking place in the country is not a one-man show, while on the other hand it might be the case of the "gulcha", the traditional burner, where interchanging it will not make the stew any tastier. It means the secret lies on how the stew is done, which could easily be applied in this case where the change of guard per se does not mean much when the existing PM himself can play a domineering role as an adviser in the background. The only difference might be he might not have to take flak at the forefront, although he could have a hand in what is happening at all levels, as an adviser to the PM’s office. At the same time, the sensitive posts will be in the hands of the TPLF members and no one will have qualm with it considering that they are more or less in charge.
The other interesting news item was one of the founders of TPLF, Sebhat Nega was talking tough on a recent interview, although what he was saying was balanced to a good extent. Nevertheless, a group that had come in as a lamb and had accomplished enough by any third world standard should be allowed to roar once in a while, because for sure TPLF had reduced its opponents into dust although the official did not call them dust. Instead he called them "soil" and the connotation of soil might be both gold and soil have similarity in such a way that gold is formed from soil, no matter how long it takes and no matter what kind of natural process takes place, eventually making gold a scarce commodity that cannot be easily corroded by soil like iron for example, what makes it the precious metal it is. And the fact that the Tigreans have the habit of calling themselves gold without sharing it with anyone else will always put a question mark on their claim and its direct meaning, although no one will have any hard feeling about it except that their staunch opponents could be offended by it since they were also considering themselves to be as good as "gold", but as it was witnessed, they might have rusted, the reason why they were ousted.
It will not, however, cease to remind us how they haphazardly ended up on top, even if it had been a while since they had started rewriting their history. The cause of their haphazard fortune started when Gobachev boasted that he was going to cause a big damage to the Americans. Those who heard him say that were baffled and further pressure brought out what he intended to do, and he said he was going to take away their deadly enemy and wants to see how it is going to affect them, because there were a lot of activity surrounding the Cold War. There were a big number American personnel from all walk of life who were working around the Cold War round the clock, which would mean it was a source a huge livelihood where lucrative jobs were created around it. Even Hollywood and other writers both fiction and nonfiction were milking it brazenly. It seems that what he aimed at was exactly that, because he knew certainly that there can never be anything that will replace it. He was correct in that because the coming to the end of the Cold War had caused a good amount of disruption before the Iraq war walked in its wake, which must have given an ulcer to Gobrachev, because fighting the provoked terrorists had already become a lucrative livelihood anyway it is looked at, even if it could be on its last legs.
To come back to our point here if that was not the case, with the help of the Soviet Union, Derg would have brought the Eritreans to their knees and the TPLF founding official himself had admitted that in the interview where the Eritrean president himself had already made some concession in East Germany with Derg when the two governments had a meeting there. It is after the Soviet Union was dismantled that the source of the foreign currency started drying up and as we know it, Derg had gone back to the Americans. For some reason, the Americans did not want to work with Derg and instead they helped the obscure group that was at the forefront of the movement to oust Derg and to find its way to power. They were not accomplished politicians and had no experience running a country when they took charge except that they had a determination to bring about change because they were tired of being shortchanged in many areas as a minority ethnic group and could have had a much better stand than the military junta that might not even have a decent education. As it was witnessed, the PM was impressive as far as his knowledge and performance were concerned and he was not the only one, which meant there was no lack of versed individuals.
In all this what was clear was there was no justification in helping the Eretreans stay with Ethiopia if they want to attain their independence badly and especially if they were going to fight for it, because the new regime knew there was no way they can afford it, and that might be what was communicated to them by the Americans who were their advisers and eventual financial backers. It does not make sense to sink scarce resources on a futile war because everyone knew that Ethiopia would survive without a port in the northern part of the country, which was expensive and risky to operate unless there is peace. Instead, at least for starters they can use the Djibouti port with its readily available rail road, and when we take into consideration the cost involved it might not be high, because at the time of the war with Eritrea there was nothing that was moving without a convoy. Whereas, here, even if there is a pay for using the port, the transportation is much easier, especially now it is enhanced by the newly built road that is crossing a peaceful region.
In addition, it is creating a source of income for a much poorer neighboring country and the possibility of having a use of a second port is not bleak when we take into consideration the improved relation with Somalia. What this brings us to is to the fact that they had to let go Eritrea because they had witnessed firsthand how the war was expensive for any regime, whereas for the Eritreans it was a way of life. This elderly official as usual is attempting to rewrite the Tigrean history by going into the rhetoric of how the Marxists of the then Ethiopia were preoccupied with nations and nationalities, and class struggle and that was what led them to give the Eritreans their independence giving precedence over class struggle. If that was the case they could have handed the Oromia region to OLF that was fighting by their side and it was because it was denied such a privilege the party walked away from the table.
Here, the main point is no one in their right mind would want to cast a stone at TPLF after witnessing what they did for the nation, but some of us cannot help musing when we notice that there is a concerted effort underway to rewrite their history and this time it has taken even the Eritreans by a surprise, because they know why they were let go was simply because keeping them under the muzzle of a gun was expensive. And claiming the EPRDF will defend them if anything happens to them might indirectly mean technically they are still part of the mainland or it is possible to read more into it because of the timing where the Ethiopians could be feeling they have the upper hand militarily thanks for the blimp and they do not want to conceal it. Other than that if it is not for the port, since there are some concerned groups that are highly critical about the nation’s being landlocked, the economic effect is non-existent since the nation is importing and exporting. Even the Ethiopian Shipping Line had recently stated that it is making a hefty profit and it is planning to expand, which shows Djibouti is a much better port for Ethiopia simply because transporting goods on rail is much cheaper than using roads or air cargo and that itself could cover the extra cost the nation is incurring for using the port.
Therefore, an interesting drama is unfolding that might have a much wider ramification, because slowly the era of the TPLF could come to an end where they will have to change their form gradually, but they cannot leave the scene simply because there will always be unfinished jobs that will keep them around even if the country becomes fully democratic.
The other interesting news item was one of the founders of TPLF, Sebhat Nega was talking tough on a recent interview, although what he was saying was balanced to a good extent. Nevertheless, a group that had come in as a lamb and had accomplished enough by any third world standard should be allowed to roar once in a while, because for sure TPLF had reduced its opponents into dust although the official did not call them dust. Instead he called them "soil" and the connotation of soil might be both gold and soil have similarity in such a way that gold is formed from soil, no matter how long it takes and no matter what kind of natural process takes place, eventually making gold a scarce commodity that cannot be easily corroded by soil like iron for example, what makes it the precious metal it is. And the fact that the Tigreans have the habit of calling themselves gold without sharing it with anyone else will always put a question mark on their claim and its direct meaning, although no one will have any hard feeling about it except that their staunch opponents could be offended by it since they were also considering themselves to be as good as "gold", but as it was witnessed, they might have rusted, the reason why they were ousted.
It will not, however, cease to remind us how they haphazardly ended up on top, even if it had been a while since they had started rewriting their history. The cause of their haphazard fortune started when Gobachev boasted that he was going to cause a big damage to the Americans. Those who heard him say that were baffled and further pressure brought out what he intended to do, and he said he was going to take away their deadly enemy and wants to see how it is going to affect them, because there were a lot of activity surrounding the Cold War. There were a big number American personnel from all walk of life who were working around the Cold War round the clock, which would mean it was a source a huge livelihood where lucrative jobs were created around it. Even Hollywood and other writers both fiction and nonfiction were milking it brazenly. It seems that what he aimed at was exactly that, because he knew certainly that there can never be anything that will replace it. He was correct in that because the coming to the end of the Cold War had caused a good amount of disruption before the Iraq war walked in its wake, which must have given an ulcer to Gobrachev, because fighting the provoked terrorists had already become a lucrative livelihood anyway it is looked at, even if it could be on its last legs.
To come back to our point here if that was not the case, with the help of the Soviet Union, Derg would have brought the Eritreans to their knees and the TPLF founding official himself had admitted that in the interview where the Eritrean president himself had already made some concession in East Germany with Derg when the two governments had a meeting there. It is after the Soviet Union was dismantled that the source of the foreign currency started drying up and as we know it, Derg had gone back to the Americans. For some reason, the Americans did not want to work with Derg and instead they helped the obscure group that was at the forefront of the movement to oust Derg and to find its way to power. They were not accomplished politicians and had no experience running a country when they took charge except that they had a determination to bring about change because they were tired of being shortchanged in many areas as a minority ethnic group and could have had a much better stand than the military junta that might not even have a decent education. As it was witnessed, the PM was impressive as far as his knowledge and performance were concerned and he was not the only one, which meant there was no lack of versed individuals.
In all this what was clear was there was no justification in helping the Eretreans stay with Ethiopia if they want to attain their independence badly and especially if they were going to fight for it, because the new regime knew there was no way they can afford it, and that might be what was communicated to them by the Americans who were their advisers and eventual financial backers. It does not make sense to sink scarce resources on a futile war because everyone knew that Ethiopia would survive without a port in the northern part of the country, which was expensive and risky to operate unless there is peace. Instead, at least for starters they can use the Djibouti port with its readily available rail road, and when we take into consideration the cost involved it might not be high, because at the time of the war with Eritrea there was nothing that was moving without a convoy. Whereas, here, even if there is a pay for using the port, the transportation is much easier, especially now it is enhanced by the newly built road that is crossing a peaceful region.
In addition, it is creating a source of income for a much poorer neighboring country and the possibility of having a use of a second port is not bleak when we take into consideration the improved relation with Somalia. What this brings us to is to the fact that they had to let go Eritrea because they had witnessed firsthand how the war was expensive for any regime, whereas for the Eritreans it was a way of life. This elderly official as usual is attempting to rewrite the Tigrean history by going into the rhetoric of how the Marxists of the then Ethiopia were preoccupied with nations and nationalities, and class struggle and that was what led them to give the Eritreans their independence giving precedence over class struggle. If that was the case they could have handed the Oromia region to OLF that was fighting by their side and it was because it was denied such a privilege the party walked away from the table.
Here, the main point is no one in their right mind would want to cast a stone at TPLF after witnessing what they did for the nation, but some of us cannot help musing when we notice that there is a concerted effort underway to rewrite their history and this time it has taken even the Eritreans by a surprise, because they know why they were let go was simply because keeping them under the muzzle of a gun was expensive. And claiming the EPRDF will defend them if anything happens to them might indirectly mean technically they are still part of the mainland or it is possible to read more into it because of the timing where the Ethiopians could be feeling they have the upper hand militarily thanks for the blimp and they do not want to conceal it. Other than that if it is not for the port, since there are some concerned groups that are highly critical about the nation’s being landlocked, the economic effect is non-existent since the nation is importing and exporting. Even the Ethiopian Shipping Line had recently stated that it is making a hefty profit and it is planning to expand, which shows Djibouti is a much better port for Ethiopia simply because transporting goods on rail is much cheaper than using roads or air cargo and that itself could cover the extra cost the nation is incurring for using the port.
Therefore, an interesting drama is unfolding that might have a much wider ramification, because slowly the era of the TPLF could come to an end where they will have to change their form gradually, but they cannot leave the scene simply because there will always be unfinished jobs that will keep them around even if the country becomes fully democratic.
posted by Ethio-Probe @ 11:58 AM
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