The Military Should Go back to the Border

The fact that Ethiopia was able to buy arms from North Korea even if it claims that the deal was stroke in 2006 before an embargo was declared on the particular rouge nation does not seem to be true. To make things complicated the money used to buy the arms is definitely provided by the US even if no one will admit it. The P.M. had the courage to lie that the US did not have anything to do with the invasion, which means there is no conceivable reason why the regime should admit that it is doing what it is doing with the collaboration of the Americans. There is no harm in it if the public is somehow benefited from it and was being defended from a threat, otherwise the whole undertaking is worrisome, because it is possible to say the Bush administration is out of touch temporarily because of the existence of Al Qaeda that is causing it a lot of problem, both in Iraq and Afghanistan.

What should be highlighted is this regime that is set to stay in power at any cost must have gotten the blimp behind it out of the blue, simply because the Al Qaeda ghost made it to Somalia searching for a safe haven to operate from. In a sense, what the poor country is doing in Somalia is definitely paid up by the US. The fact they got involved in the war by using a nonexistent threat by the Islamist shows they have availed the Ethiopian military as a mercenary for anyone to hire it, which could generate good money in normal circumstances. Nevertheless, the whole arrangement changes its form because governments are not expected to get involved into the internal affair of sovereign nations as long as their interest had not been transgressed. There is enough proof that was not the case and we do not have to forget these individuals and their advisors have a good knowledge of public opinion, they are also aware that they can bend or break the rules as it happened twice, just recently; the invasion and buying a big military supply. The notion here seems to be that as long as the global sheriff gives his nod, anyone could get away by committing a crime.

What is happening is the Ethiopian military that had attained an easy victory in dispersing an ill trained and equipped militia that was made up of young people in the open dessert is facing a much stronger resistance in Mogadishu and the damage being inflicted on it is not being reported because it could be substantial. As long as it has a US backing it does not have to be worried about covering the expense, but the Bush administration in office is facing a huge opposition at home, because people have come to realize that he could be out on a witch hunt, and his involvement is costing everyone a lot, which would mean the American public and the next government are going to find a totally different solution to deal with the problem that is in existence, that seems to be losing not only ground, but the venture of the Bush administration is definitely coming to an end. There is not even one candidate that is seeing the situation the way the existing president is seeing it, which means Al Qaeda, which could be a ghost that was created and is fighting for its survival could become a thing of the past. The main reason why Afghanistan is under microscope is because of its opium trade, where growing the plant is more of a lifestyle and a means of making a living in the poor nation, but as we know it whatever they produce is a threat, not only in the West but anywhere else people are consuming the drug. Which would mean the regime in Ethiopia could take the same route Derg took when in the very near future, the rug is pulled from under its feet, because from all signals coming out of the country, it does not seem it has its own resources to do what it is doing in Somalia.

The only choice it will have in the future is to leave Somalia with similar embarrassment the Derg suffered because it failed to control the Eritrean freedom fighters since the war was costly and beyond its means, especially after the Soviet Union went out of the scene. Even if it is going to be a wishful thinking, any administration should not take such a gamble because the outcome could be a deja vu again, where someone straight out of the wood could walk into the government office, since the spent Ethiopian military will be in the same position the Derg was, simply because the next administration that comes into the White House could withdraw all its supports.

What this means is even if the popular belief is EPRDF had not lost the election and that was a propaganda disseminated by the opposition, it might come to pass that it would have been better if the electorate were able to foresee that EPRDF will be forced, due to economical necessity to become a mercenary, an arrangement that will put the nation in a precarious situation, because the unpopular CUD might have been a better choice in spite all its problems, since it might not succumb for such an ambition and in the long run it could have been better for the nation. However, from what is happening now, the nation is surrounded by enemies and it has unnecessarily exposed itself. The leader of the Isalmists is in Asmara talking to the political leaders who have become an arch-enemy of the nation, which means he is not uprooted, he is at large, he could reorganize, and his first target could be the Ethiopian government in the capital, which could be spent in the very near future. Hence, within a year time it is difficult to see who is going to be in charge of the nation since there are freedom fighters in every corner of the country whose existence is becoming clear as the days pass.

Therefore, even if it is difficult to say what the arrangement between the Americans and the Ethiopians is and what kind of money is involved, and how much of it is being spent to ameliorate the situation of the public that is gagged from determining its future, and is having it bad, worse than any time in its history, the public, especially those who are in a position have to do something. In spite of their being under the barrel of a gun, they should start to consult among themselves, because not doing so could cost them dearly again. What this means is the habit of delegating the nation's responsibility to misguided individuals simply because they find themselves haphazardly where they are and are demonstrating that they are able body, without supporting it with deeds is again a mistake and had been proven to be a mistake before.

This administration had no business of being in Somalia and try to put in power a government of its or its patrons’ choice, because it does not make sense and it might be tolerated only if the resources that are being used for the venture are not affecting the normal functioning of the badly strapped nation. It is not only that when the time arrives and the rug is pulled from under their feet, the misadventure should not backfire on the nation. It is not yet too late to make it back to the border where they rightly belong and are allowed legally to defend the nation from any threat, by handing over the responsibility to the AU peacekeepers who have others to foot the bills for them publicly, not under the table. Any a deal that takes place under the table cannot be accounted for and is not transparent, which means it could enrich a few at the expense of the vast majority. The American public, as well as the opposition have sent a clear signal that they will be changing course, which might mean they are not going to spend their time, resources, and human lives by chasing an Al Qaeda ghost that might have been created to serve a purpose and was blown out of proportion, and the initial purpose cannot be realized, because any of the dangers the Americans suspected were not there. Which would mean what the regime in office is doing is creating a bonanza for the opposition and others that would not hesitate to put their hand on the government office. The worry is the same thing could be repeated where someone with enough military back up could take power and the fear of starting from square one could set in.