What Comes Next?

One thing very interesting would have been if the political differences had been sacrificed so that people would feast on it on the millenium celebration. But that would remain a wishful thinking when the government is claiming that it had gained militarily against ONLF when it should have been the other way around. It is much better if the two sides can negotiate and come up with a permanent solution, because it is going to be another weak knee for the government since the Americans have already started talking about the particular fallout where a lot of malfeasance had been highlighted that could tarnish the image of the government is trying to build. It is not only that they want to see positive results to continue doing what they are doing that was spelled out clearly.

What this means is the system will have unlimited number of compromises to make, which it should not find difficult since it is emulating to become a democratic administration and at one juncture if it continues to work hard it will find itself under a very effective democracy sprawling across the country, a prescription everyone is in need badly. Because, as a stern guerilla fighters themselves the regime in office should understand that it is not easy to put down a determined uprising, except that whatever is originating from the southern part of the country is mild and is used as a bargaining chip where whoever is claiming to be in charge of the system will have to make more concessions on top of what had been accomplished, which is significant by the standard that everyone used to know as Ethiopia.

What this means is anyone who is contemplating to introduce anything else other than democracy in the country will be wasting time and scarce resources. It is going to be difficult to even introduce a slight about face because that region, namely the Horn of Africa has gained the attention of the world powers, especially the Americans who already have a military presence in the region. This means those who had been oppressed and are now taking a breath, their situation in the future is going to be permanent where all they need is to work hard to improve their situation and make up for what they might have lost or were not able to achieve due to the harsh environment that was imposed on them by the previous regime, because there might not be looking back from what can be inferred from the political maneuvering that is taking place. One thing they will have to avoid at any cost is being sucked into any kind of terrorist activity. The current terrorists’ master plan would not mind to involve every Muslim by declaring some kind of a Jihad. But that is not going to be the best way to go, because more or less, they have accomplished their mission, which might have been to change the opinion and outlook of the world powers who would not have had time to pay attention to their grievances if they had not gone to the extreme, which should be condemned.

It is obvious that they have to come up with better methods to deal with the situation at hand. When that happens the world starts to be a better place to live in for every one. This is not the first time groups of different opinions, outlooks, and interests resorted to what others consider to be a wrong approach to address whatever grievance was in existence. Whatever price would be involved, those who are in a position to correct what they believed to be wrong had gone to an extreme length when it is compared to what is happening now, which is mild from the price those who are doing the policing had to pay, if not those who were considered to be the perpetrators.

In a normal circumstance, people will have to be able to solve their differences by negotiating. Things always go wrong when one group wants uncompromising advantage or does not want to relent due to poor judgement. As long as that is not the case, and there is no a communication breakdown people would have to bring their grievances to the table and find solutions. A military solution in a case of a popular uprising does not render a lasting solution. Both ELF and TPLF had been fighting for a considerable number of years even if the Ethiopian military had the upper hand almost always, but when the balance was tipped for a slight instance, both were able to walk into the capital. What this means is for some reason they were determined to attain some kind of independence from the earlier administration that was originating from central Shoa. But now those who are operating in the southern part of the country do not have the same kind of drive. They would rather stay with the whole nation as long as some of their demands are met that might not be difficult to live with. What this means is anyone who is talking about democracy is saying is, whether they fully comprehend it or not, what had already taken place is just a start and what is needed is more work on its permanence.

It is very difficult to fathom when those who are talking about introducing democracy in the country are against what is taking place in a form of regional representation and some are claiming that the first thing that will go when they take power is that. This means their kind of democracy will not be feasible in the nation because if each region loses the freedom it is enjoying now, what are they going to replace it with? A central government made up of a majority from one ethnic group that will have an absolute say in what is taking place in the various regions, in a manner that suits their interest and their purpose? That would mean going back directly to where the country was before the various factions came together to hammer out this system, which is one of their achievement. It is very difficult to say the constitution was one of their best achievements because the nation had a constitution before them. And every new system that comes into power, whether it usurped power or is elected democratically, a given new government has the constitutional right to modify and amend the existing constitution or it can come up with a new one. But any constitution that will do away with the regional freedom will not be popular, and if the government is democratically elected it could cost it its office or if it is a usurper, the constitution will be functional until someone else snatched the power by whatever means.

Therefore, even if some kind of military measure is required to restore order, the government will have to be willing to work with the rebel group that had caused a considerable damage whose number is small and whose drive is still mild by any standard and might not represent the whole region. All they might want to be addressed could be a grievance mostly that has to do with power sharing where every region should be equally benefited from whatever is generated in their own region since the possibility of discovering oil in their region is a possibility. If that was not the case OLF would not have wanted to form a new party that it believes would grow by the time the next election comes around to become a formidable force that will replace EPRDF, because it is possible that it will meet all the requirements, including a military backup, since what was badly lacking from the earlier opposition party was the visibility of the other regions in a more meaningful way. No matter how strapped the nation is going to be that kind of a quick fixer upper should not be allowed to take the country directly back to where it was, with such a determination to punish those who introduced such a change. Those who have such an intention will find it difficult because if nothing else the Americans presence in the region will prevent them taking the country back to where one ethnic group was abusing power to the point where the others would have to come together to find a solution and it is needless to say they had gotten international help to attain some kind self administration.

Currently, it is different simply because, for a country like Ethiopia that is not advanced in many areas will find it difficult to become a democratic country overnight, and the lack of what is needed could be blamed on the previous regime that was systematically keeping everyone backward. It takes time to change that while at the same it is important to pressure everyone to study their options, because a small region like Ogaden might be better off to stay in a democratic Ethiopia and contribute for the development of their region than declaring independence. The same might be applicable to the other regions, because even if it seems that they have the resources and the potential to develop their regions that is not developed presently, there is a huge advantage to be gained from creating an advanced economy in a setup where there are a big number of people who are striving to introduce similar advancement into their own regions where sharing all resources will be possible. They could end up supplying each other with what the other regions are lacking, without being worried about border, tariff, subsidy, or even preferential treatment. The whole world is talking about creating a huge free trade zone instead of dismantling what is in existence, where the only time it will be counterproductive is if it is abused. And saying this is like scratching the surface because, if the whole nation works together with the same goal of changing everyone's situation the outcome will be overwhelming in a very short period.

But the problem is if there is only one group that is wrongly claiming to know what is best for everyone and the rest will have to take order from this particular group, the other will react to such an outlook in a negative way, like the Tigrean and the Eritreans reacted toward what was directed at them from the earlier regime and could ended up raising arms for many years. But now since the nation is trying to build a democratic administration in spite of some of the difficulties it is facing, mild misunderstandings such as what is taking place in Ogaden could flare up. The solution as it was discussed cannot be a military one always since they cannot be made part of the nation by force. That just happened to be a natural phenomenon and no one had learned such a lesson better than Ethiopia. Therefore, it is once bitten twice shy, which would mean in this case all peaceful means have to be exhausted to a satisfactory level, and through such a process there will be a permanent solution.