What is to be done? There is no light at the end of the tunnel

An opposition leader who was favored by the government in office seems to have gone back to prison for no satisfactory reason, because this is what freedom of speech means, where she is entitled to express her opinion and has every right to call a spade a spade if she has to. It seems that since her being put back to prison does not have legal ground, it is wise that she gave up the hunger strike and is working to exonerate herself legally. Let alone topnotch politicians who are under close scrutiny by everyone, even laymen have to have some smarts, in this case a diplomatic smart to refrain from commenting on controversial issues. It does not matter how the CUD members came out of prison. What matters is they were freed and they could have gone into any kind of arrangement to get out of prison. The point is once they are out of there they could literally forget the arrangement made once they had made it clear to their supporters and the public what exactly took place. That is a subject matter no one wants to discuss because there is a public record that states exactly what took place and it is up to those who are curious how to interpret it.

This kind of approach makes sense when someone is trying to function in a totalitarian, authoritative, or communist regimes. TPLF is a communist party deep down because those who are in charge identify with the doctrine head on and it seems that they are trying to give it a facelift. On the other hand, a party such as UDJP and its philosophy, including those who are in charge of it are not either a better alternative because everyone knows what goes on behind the seemingly iron curtain that is very transparent. It could be beyond a 34 years old young lawyer to arm wrestle with politicians who could be her fathers. The PM, at around 54 could be her father and he might be among the youngest central committee members as the others could be much older and muster a much broader experience in politics.

To make things worse everyone knows how Birtukan Mediksa made her entry into the Ethiopian politics. It was a tactic masterminded either by the engineer or his close associates in order to make the CUD party look all inclusive, because the Oromos are the main opponents of those everyone calls neftegnas and were or are crying wolf whenever they got the opportunity, because they did not have a good experience with them. And it is such a rift that is in existence that is keeping a party such as TPLF, a highly business driven group that had gained the name "mafia" afloat because they definitely have shown a clout that is better than the CUDs whose preoccupation was the sheer existence of the Oromos.

Not long ago Birtukan Mediksa was a favorite opposition political leader provided that she was able to stand by her own. That would have not been possible simply because she is surrounded by the CUDs and they might be her best advisers who advised her to change the name of the party and become its leader while they stay in the background. Because they know their turn will not come around as long as TPLF is in power armed to the teeth.

It is a great disappointment for those who were expecting something will happen at the coming election, because that hope is already snuffed out. The only reamaining chance currently is the party that is led by the so called Dr. Birhanu who seems to have disappeared from the scene. The individual could be making a clandestine preparation behind the scene since his party is planning to take power by military means that will make things very complicated or he has given up hope and enjoying life wherever he is and as a university professor he could lead a comfortable life anywhere.

Such a situation calls for a completely new start by crossing our fingers to the effort Dr. Birihanu is masterminding, because it seems that no one can manipulate him. This means we need new politicians who would be much better off if they start operating from outside and will go back there when they are only safe from claws of TPLF that had shown it is an unreasonable party by what it did to Birtukan, undermining the fact that she is free to express her views. The other interesting issue to mention is for some reason the quiet at the various political camps is deafening and there is only one year and a few months to go before the election. When are they going to start their campaigning? What happened to all those vibrant efforts, opinions and stand clashes that were taking place at the last election? The only thing that we all heard recently is the arrest of the young lawyer who lacks the smart of playing a diplomatic role. It is not only that TPLF knows that the old CUDs would be controlling all her moves behind the scene, to the point where if she wins it could mean that she could hand them her victory in a silver platter. Even if it seems very unreasonable, it might be a preemptive move they had planned for a while, but did not have any good reason to arrest her. The minute she makes what they could make look like a grave mistake they locked her for life. Why? She could be a big threat for them since she could mobilize the Oromo population. Even CUD somehow had managed to have the support of a sizeable number of Oromos knowing clearly what the CUDs stand for. It is possible that a few might have been intimidated by what a small ethnic group is doing, because at the beginning the arrangement was not like this where TPLF will call all the shots like a dictator that has usurped power by its own sole effort and put everyone under the barrel. TPLF had the support of the Oromos to be where it is today and once it grabbed power it had given them a cold shoulder, the only sweetener between them being the ethnic politics and regional autonomy that had made every ethnic group free to do what it likes in its own region, as long as it remains under the federation TPLF is fully in charge of.

In a situation like this it is difficult to tell where the solution is going to come from, because the other ethnic groups need TPLF to enable them to do their things and we are talking about unrestricted development of their own region. To continue to do that all that it will cost everyone is to let TPLF continue take some advantages that is not overblown out of proportion. It is difficult to blame and punish clout and success no matter how much it advances those who are masterminding it as long there is a cap put on it that is observed. The CUDs had clouts too, although their central focus was based on oppressing others while advancing their own cause only that resulted in their demise, because when the right time came no one wanted to defend them knowing that they had run out of tricks. Derge and its entourages came in roaring and they got luckier when they landed the support of the communist countries and that enabled them to continue roaring. They would have been still roaring if the political landscape had remained the same or even having the communists by their side might have not prevented their demise, because the war with Eritrea was expensive. That is why it is safe to speculate the same thing might have happened because they did not have the clout, the reason why they were reluctant to give a new and untried force a chance hoping that they will take it back when the time is right. That had been witnessed by the kind of vigorous campaign CUD conducted because by every calculation that was the right time for them to take charge, as the main hurdle had been removed, which was the recognition the government got from the West. The problem was the tiger already had tasted blood and there was no way it will let go and that stance of TPLF will not change any time soon. It seems that the Oromos who supported CUD instead of coming up of with something of their own might have tried to avenge TPLF that had let them down to an extent, because it had made them feel powerless in many fronts.

All that had evaporated currently and there are not many sources that will come up with the required salvation, which is the badly needed democracy and the market economy where a government is not afraid of the success of its own citizens who have learned a bad lesson and might behave very differently this time, by being responsible citizens, not the arrogant neftegnas that bite the dust or who were forced to change their forms. It seems that this might be the time to look toward that direction, but like we used to say in the previous election, this time there is no light at the end of the tunnel, at least till now. The only shaky light was Birtukan and she might have been snuffed out because everyone is weary about CUDs taking advantage of the situation. It is difficult to say what will give, except that the time is rife for new thinking, new faces, and new politicians should appear in big number, because although we are more or less happy with what TPLF/EPRDF is doing, we still need more as what happened to Birtukan would not happen in any democratic country, even if the reason why TPLF is doing this kind of silly mistake might be obvious as discussed earlier.