The Moment of Truth could be Dragging Its Feet

The recent visit of the Ethiopian foreign minster to Baidoa to broker and mediate peace among the same group that belongs to the transitional administration seems to have averted the opportunity the administration might have gone into the embrace of the Islamic union. If there is something interesting to take a note of here is how no one saw Islam could render a very strong solution to the disintegrated Somali community, because the clan system could easily be observed under Islam, whereas the national unity could be based on the Muslim religion and brotherhood. However, the only time things will go wrong is if the religion is used the wrong way where it could definitely backfire like it did on the Talibans. This means putting a cap is important on the extremism and fundamentalism of the Muslims of Somalia, which probably include all of them. These people, more or less, belong to same ethnic group, except that they cannot all live in the same geographical area, and historically they have different colonial experience.

That is why there are two Somalias even if the Republic of Somalia is not recognized by any government body. They speak the same language, they follow the same religion, and the big majority of them are from the same ethnic group. Any nation that has such a makeup should direct its focus into other more demanding endeavors and it is beyond anyone’s comprehension why they should succumb for a clan based living and working arrangement when that could be given secondary or even less importance in their existence as a nation.

Now, it seems like that problem is solved except that if it is used the wrong way it is going to cause a lot of problem to a lot of people. The Americans and the Western world are going to say that such a group would create a haven for Al-Qaeda members and there is nothing that will prevent the Somalis from joining them, because the Al-Qaeda operation is lucrative since it has heavyweight financial backers who are anonymous and could be from any region who consider themselves the foes of the Western world and their ideology, what they are doing around the world, and the most fervent issue being the West’s, especially the American’s relation with Israel.

This means since it will be lucrative financially in the first place and secondly as Muslims they cannot stand what Israel or the Americans are doing to their Muslim brothers, they would definitely become a willful accomplice for anyone that is against the West. That will make them a serious threat for world peace, because the world is much better off without terrorist organizations that are almost always unable to be accountable for their acts. Anyone who tries to defy this de facto status quo could get the same treatment the Iraqis are getting, and no nation would want to see such a big number of its citizens being killed for no worthwhile reason at all.

To pass this test, they have to demonstrate that they are immune from any terrorist, fundamentalist, extremist influence and tendencies, which might be difficult. But at least, in principal if they condemn any act of terrorism and back it up with deeds, most probably it would be enough, because that is what most nations are doing by creating an allegiance with the West and by not allowing any opportunity for such problems to breed amidst them. Once they passed that test, they might be allowed to continue to build their nation, because they need something to bring them together and this solution that had been under their nose all the time might be the answer, and they have to work hard so that it does not slip through their fingers.

Nevertheless, nations like Ethiopia will always be fearful of such a comeback by the Somalis for the obvious reasons that will bring back to mind 1977, because the minute they become strong enough what they will focus on is the greater Somalia, which will include the Ethiopian Ogaden region. This brings to the fore a problem that had been around for a long time now and the inhabitants of the Ogadeon are native Somalis even if they were annexed into Ethiopia at a time there was no demarcation or border. They are not the only ones that are afflicted with this problem. Almost all the southern part of the country was assimilated by arms as everyone is aware of it, and some of them had been talking about self determination for quite a while now, and the present Ethiopian constitution recognizes such right of nations and nationalities through article 39. The problem is if that becomes a reality the nation that we know as Ethiopia today might look very different on the map because a good part of it will be gone and like one Ethiopian asked, then if this is allowed to take place what will be left for the rest of us?

It is a genuine concern but most probably the means to address this problem is evading most of us, like the best solution, as long as it is used the right way to solve the Somalis’ problem had been eluding them all along while they were helplessly watching the nation run aground by clan friction. Therefore, it is possible that still the best solution might evade us, but the way to arrive at the best solution is by weighing the options that we have on hand. That is why TPLF/EPRDF should be commended, because at least what they have introduced have calmed many of them to the point where forces like OLF, ONLF, and SLF have joined hands in the open to find a national solution instead of a regional solution. The Tigreans and the Amharas through CUD had been invited and very willingly have joined hands. It is not only that the worst recalcitrant the Eritreans are said to be behind this movement dubbed as Alliance for Freedom and Democracy. Are we supposed to read more into this alliance? Is it possible that if there is a genuine democracy in the country the Eritreans are planning to make a comeback? Or they are just concerned about the oppressed people and want to help them get organized? These and more questions have already started to haunt us.

It is a known fact that TPLF is not popular any more even among the Tigreans and many prominent Tigreans are against them, and here also we can pose the same question, and what are we going to read into it? As things are unfolding the group led by TPLF are said to be a topnotch business interest group who are doing what they are doing in the name of the Tigray people, but the reality is the Tigrian public is not getting anything, and who is getting rich from the whole arrangement are a handful of cliques that have turned around the liberation effort to their advantage and have created a number of businesses that are siphoning directly whatever is being generated into the personal accounts of these individuals.

But till date this might be only speculation, because no one had availed a concrete proof, and if they can evade the local people, the foreign nations that most probably are guarding what these individuals are siphoning from the nation have not said anything and they are still giving out aid even if they are getting much stricter. As a result, most people are in the dark and it is difficult to believe anyone because, after all we are dealing with the third world mentality, where what everyone upholds is make hay while the sun shines, which means if any group makes it to the office it will leave that office by enriching the group and along the way, there could definitely be something accomplished that will be left behind for the public.

There does not seem to be anything wrong with such a notion as long as there is some cap put to it, which means if those who are on power use their connection to advance their own personal welfare, they could get the nod, because they need something to fall upon after leaving office. And if that is the case they could draw the line and say I have given enough service for the nation and at the same time I was able to plan for my own future, because once a public figure, life could be difficult if one wants to start from scratch. In fact, such golden parachutes should be thought of in advance for those who are going into public office.

In the Western world, if someone wants to run for a government office and they succeed they will have to appoint someone to run their private interest in an arrangement known as a blind trust. They are not suppose to know anything that goes on with their interest and the law does not allow them to have anything to do with their private interest until they leave the government office. That might be the reason behind those who are running for public office are usually well off and for the most part if they have other interest that pays more than their government job pays, they will not hold the post for a long period.

But in a third world country it could be different and some people could find themselves in power in a haphazard situation, like if we take the case of the members of the TPLF who might have not imagined that someday they will find themselves in charge of the Ethiopian government while they were in the woods. But once they find themselves in a position and if they have to leave that position for others within a given limited time, since the system does not have a golden parachute for them in place, they might be allowed to look after their own interest in a manner that would get a nod from their colleagues, as well as outside observers.

All this diatribe is to tackle a problem that had been surfacing for a while now, where anyone that is working to improve the condition of the nation might have in the back of their mind simultaneously a hidden agenda to enrich themselves, and it could be true or otherwise. Yet, almost always what will propel some forces and groups into power is the need of the time, like it had been proven many times. We can go back in our history and almost all the recent kings after the Era of the Princes had found their way into power because there was a dire need for them. But what they do after their take power will be what they will be judged by and some of them could be banished from office if they abuse their position and it had happened a few times in our recent history. Therefore, if TPLF had been abusing their power the nation will judge them for it, whether they are in the country or outside of the country.

But the key now is the nation needs a new start with a government that will be propelled into office by the approval of the general public, and the group that seems to have been chosen if things do not go wrong is OLF and its alliance, which means they are the new choice. They are certainly getting support from every region, and what is making them such a hot potato is they are going to arrest the fear of the nation that the country is going to drift apart, because most of them belong in that group.

A dominant coalition should rule the country for a long time does not seem to be the best route to follow since that is the glimpse we got recently about the PM’s stand in the future of the country’s politics, and unless there is a competing force that will put the existing administration back in line whenever they digress, like any self-imposed administration they will become a liability and the most they can do is enrich themselves, because there will not be a checking mechanism to control them. That is where democracy comes in, as a democratically elected government could be removed from office if the general public thinks it is not doing its job properly. Yet, it is possible to doubt the public’s ability to make such judgements because it is new to democracy. On the other hand, because of such doubt it is not possible to allow a very small minority get their way if that is the case. If there is a price to be paid because of taking such a decisive measure, it seems that it will be worth it, and there is that doubt hanging in the air about TPLF’s rule still being by the muzzle, an image that might need changing if it starts to compare itself with other coalition governments that are the outcome of democratic elections. One way to do that might be to step aside and make a comeback through a democratic process.

What this means is if we want to keep Ogaden in Ethiopia, we have to give them a very good reason to stay with us. If we want to see the Eritrean wanting to make a comeback the same applies, they have to have good reasons, and this outlook applies across the board, which will bring us to our starting point, where, at least as Ethiopians, we do not have to be worried to death because our neighbors are going to solve their problem by using their religion to bring them together. As long as they use it properly and in an acceptable manner, it will contribute a lot to the stability of the Horn of Africa.

The fact that Ethiopia is working with the weak transitional government that might never take control of the whole country might seem futile for outside observers, yet if it works and starts to play the role what Siad Barre’s government was playing, it might be good, because it is known that Islam religion and quick advancement do not go together. This had been proven in earlier incidents in many nations that were using the Sharia law as the main law of the land, because since it is an old law it might lack many components, where the recently created laws can deal with recurring problems much swiftly and this had been attested by many staunch defendants of the faith that include Turkey that had no choice other than replacing the old Sharia law by modern law when they started modernizing their country.

But here if we are given the choice between going back to the clan system and applying the strict Sharia law, even the West might show some tolerance for the Sahria law, because, at least the Somali nation will not be torn apart. But this particular law when it is compared with any kind of modern state laws, the choice will be to have a modern government that will lead the nation into prosperity and advancement. Yet, if that vulnerability of slipping back into clan disintegration is there, the available options will have to be weighed carefully and the fact that another clan is playing a leading role might not be the harbinger of a clan disaster, because Islam could bring the whole nation together like never before.

This case is interesting to watch as it unfolds in the coming months, to see which choice would gain the upper hand, and as long as there is peace and national security, both of them could do a good job. They can even cohabit together, which means what will compel the Somalis of Ogaden to join the other Somalis is only if they do not get their proper place in Ethiopia with all its benefits, but once they are full participants it is permissible at least to entertain the possibility that they will choose to remain with Ethiopia, and the decisive factor is the merit their being with Ethiopia avails to them.

This is applicable to everyone of the regional ethnic groups that are keeping an eye on the option of going it alone. If they get what they need and if Ethiopia is capable of availing what everyone needs in an equitable manner, it is possible to attract more partners let alone to lose what we have. Otherwise, Eritrea has taught us a lesson, where anyone of the dissatisfied regions might decide their fate when they are capable to do so, and till then they will be half-hearted partners at best or they could cause problem at worse. Hence, the responsibility of the new alliance is undeniably formidable, yet their becoming the best choice on the coming election is on the making while at the same time they will have to survive being thoroughly scrutinized.