Power Sharing
The likely outlook of the coming election could be in the making, because no matter how much the existing government manipulates the election, or no mater how much the votes will be rigged, there is nothing that will prevent the recent buzz from being applied in the nation’s election result, which is "power sharing". It had worked perfectly in Kenya and it could be in the process of working in Zimbabwe. The next countries to follow the same route should be Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Sudan that have developed similar problems.
The Somalia government that is getting all the support and recognition from around the world might have to start sharing power with the Islamists, because that could bring around the badly needed peace and reconciliation. If that happens the Ethiopian army, as well as the government could get a respite, unless there are concealed advantages the Ethiopian government would get if the situation continue to deteriorate.
When we come to Ethiopia, the same would be applicable and power sharing would be more than sitting in a parliament and playing a rubber stamp role, as many observers are portraying the oppositions. If that becomes a reality, TPLF cannot call the shots alone and if there is any special advantage they would get from total control of the government and the decision making process, it will be eliminated completely. The next election that will come after some seven years might see a democratically elected government in office, because those who have already become active and immersed in the nations politics would have much more experience and exposure than they have now and the strategies they would come up with will be much more matured.
From what is happening now, it seems that the countries elite are going to go up in arms to snatch some of the advantages TPLF is keeping for its own ethnic group and for a few adherents who are from other ethnic groups. What is unfortunate is the future leaders of the country would always come from the elite and if they fail to curb their personal ambition and drive and start sacrificing their self-interest, the country will not move forward. It is also possible that they might not be aware of the fact that everyone, including them will be better off if the nation advances first, before everyone starts looking after their own interest, because whatever is available will have to be put to work first instead of enriching the few elite. They have to sacrifice their own interest and doing that could be investing in the future of everyone. TPLF seems to understand this reality, but whether they are putting it to work effectively or not is difficult to judge because of the barge of bad media coverage they are getting.
Based on such premise, if the Islamists, for example, decide to cleanup their act and distance themselves from terrorism and start talking about nation building, it is both countries that will be benefited, because what is happening in Somalia is being used as a pretext for keeping the existing regime in office, since they are policing the Horn region. That would mean they have to be kept strong militarily too and at least this seems to be the kind of relationship that exists between the departing USA administration and the Ethiopian regime. It is possible that this stance could change when a new administration is ushered in into office. However, it is going to be a deja vu where the British, when they left Ethiopia after rescuing British captives by Atse Tewodros they had left behind a very strong Atse Yohanes who was able to claim the throne with a relative ease and we know how he was treating the other kings and regional leaders. The TPLF case is unfolding exactly the same way as time progresses and they will build a much more stronger army that will be difficult to beat.
Amid such happenings the new political movement is also considering using arms to get rid of TPLF, which could be very difficult and costly in every way it is looked at, including human life, although it might be the only solution unless TPLF agrees to share power. The other problem is the war is going to be between elite groups that want to control the nation for their own benefit, because from what had been observed, no matter who is in charge of the nation’s governance, the people will continue to do what they had been doing, because there is also pressure from outside, where no aid will not come into the country unless certain requirements are met. These requirements are channeling most of the aid money into developmental programs. When those requirements are met through such process, the nation will continue to fare at the same level, better, or worse.
The difference is those who assume power could do a lot of damage as go-betweens, because they will not be representatives of the people, as they have their own self interest to look after. It does not mean they will not ask for the people’s vote, they would run an effective campaign because they have to do things properly even if their main drive might not be serving the nation. The people will also go out and vote for them, because they have no choice in the first place, and like it was stated they do not lose their livelihood, although the nation’s political, economic, and social condition could deteriorate. There is no easy way to go around such a technical standoff, at least at this time in point, when the number of the country dwellers is more than 85 percent and the remaining 15 percent are not all elite, where the percentage of the elite might not be more than 1 or 2 percent.
Nevertheless, since they have the know-how no one could prevent them from representing the public, whether they do it the proper way or not. If we look at what is happening in the USA’s election, the number is reversed where more than 90 percent of the population seems to be educated and the remaining 10 percent could be functionally illiterate, but they are very much aware of what goes on around them. Because of that they know how to punish an administration in office if it fails to meet their expectation. This is applicable in all the advanced democratic countries. Our case is also emulating to make it there and such effort deserve commending, but it will take some time to make it there. Could we possibly imagine armed guerrilla fighters taking charge of a government in any of the advanced regions? They cannot do it because they cannot stand the opposition that would engulf them from the public that is the target of their takeover.
In our country the percentage of the passive population is very high and could approach close to 99 percent and those active ones are only the elite. The problem the different groups of the elite could have their own agenda and that could put many at a disadvantage. If we really look at those who will be first in line to be at a disadvantage, it is the elite of each ethnic group, because they are fighting among themselves for their own advantage first and generally for the ethnic group they belong to on the second round. It does not mean this situation will not change, but it takes time and education. We might be looking at one or two generations later, where this 99 percent daunting figure will start coming down and things will start getting much better as it approaches the 50 percent mark. Until then, the least the elite of the country can do is to sacrifice their own ambition and interest. It is lack of such measures that brought the nation where it is now, where the dissatisfaction level is at the very highest. It will not also be difficult to spot such ambitions, and whenever such ambitions are spotted they should be shot down for the good of the nation. Therefore, it is always possible to start from what is possible, which is sacrificing self-interest and that should include everyone. What this means is there will have to be some source that will expose such ambitions so that, at least, even if the leaders of the nation are going to be from among the natives, those very ambitious ones and those who would find it difficult to sacrifice their self-interest in the name of the nation will be weeded out.
The Somalia government that is getting all the support and recognition from around the world might have to start sharing power with the Islamists, because that could bring around the badly needed peace and reconciliation. If that happens the Ethiopian army, as well as the government could get a respite, unless there are concealed advantages the Ethiopian government would get if the situation continue to deteriorate.
When we come to Ethiopia, the same would be applicable and power sharing would be more than sitting in a parliament and playing a rubber stamp role, as many observers are portraying the oppositions. If that becomes a reality, TPLF cannot call the shots alone and if there is any special advantage they would get from total control of the government and the decision making process, it will be eliminated completely. The next election that will come after some seven years might see a democratically elected government in office, because those who have already become active and immersed in the nations politics would have much more experience and exposure than they have now and the strategies they would come up with will be much more matured.
From what is happening now, it seems that the countries elite are going to go up in arms to snatch some of the advantages TPLF is keeping for its own ethnic group and for a few adherents who are from other ethnic groups. What is unfortunate is the future leaders of the country would always come from the elite and if they fail to curb their personal ambition and drive and start sacrificing their self-interest, the country will not move forward. It is also possible that they might not be aware of the fact that everyone, including them will be better off if the nation advances first, before everyone starts looking after their own interest, because whatever is available will have to be put to work first instead of enriching the few elite. They have to sacrifice their own interest and doing that could be investing in the future of everyone. TPLF seems to understand this reality, but whether they are putting it to work effectively or not is difficult to judge because of the barge of bad media coverage they are getting.
Based on such premise, if the Islamists, for example, decide to cleanup their act and distance themselves from terrorism and start talking about nation building, it is both countries that will be benefited, because what is happening in Somalia is being used as a pretext for keeping the existing regime in office, since they are policing the Horn region. That would mean they have to be kept strong militarily too and at least this seems to be the kind of relationship that exists between the departing USA administration and the Ethiopian regime. It is possible that this stance could change when a new administration is ushered in into office. However, it is going to be a deja vu where the British, when they left Ethiopia after rescuing British captives by Atse Tewodros they had left behind a very strong Atse Yohanes who was able to claim the throne with a relative ease and we know how he was treating the other kings and regional leaders. The TPLF case is unfolding exactly the same way as time progresses and they will build a much more stronger army that will be difficult to beat.
Amid such happenings the new political movement is also considering using arms to get rid of TPLF, which could be very difficult and costly in every way it is looked at, including human life, although it might be the only solution unless TPLF agrees to share power. The other problem is the war is going to be between elite groups that want to control the nation for their own benefit, because from what had been observed, no matter who is in charge of the nation’s governance, the people will continue to do what they had been doing, because there is also pressure from outside, where no aid will not come into the country unless certain requirements are met. These requirements are channeling most of the aid money into developmental programs. When those requirements are met through such process, the nation will continue to fare at the same level, better, or worse.
The difference is those who assume power could do a lot of damage as go-betweens, because they will not be representatives of the people, as they have their own self interest to look after. It does not mean they will not ask for the people’s vote, they would run an effective campaign because they have to do things properly even if their main drive might not be serving the nation. The people will also go out and vote for them, because they have no choice in the first place, and like it was stated they do not lose their livelihood, although the nation’s political, economic, and social condition could deteriorate. There is no easy way to go around such a technical standoff, at least at this time in point, when the number of the country dwellers is more than 85 percent and the remaining 15 percent are not all elite, where the percentage of the elite might not be more than 1 or 2 percent.
Nevertheless, since they have the know-how no one could prevent them from representing the public, whether they do it the proper way or not. If we look at what is happening in the USA’s election, the number is reversed where more than 90 percent of the population seems to be educated and the remaining 10 percent could be functionally illiterate, but they are very much aware of what goes on around them. Because of that they know how to punish an administration in office if it fails to meet their expectation. This is applicable in all the advanced democratic countries. Our case is also emulating to make it there and such effort deserve commending, but it will take some time to make it there. Could we possibly imagine armed guerrilla fighters taking charge of a government in any of the advanced regions? They cannot do it because they cannot stand the opposition that would engulf them from the public that is the target of their takeover.
In our country the percentage of the passive population is very high and could approach close to 99 percent and those active ones are only the elite. The problem the different groups of the elite could have their own agenda and that could put many at a disadvantage. If we really look at those who will be first in line to be at a disadvantage, it is the elite of each ethnic group, because they are fighting among themselves for their own advantage first and generally for the ethnic group they belong to on the second round. It does not mean this situation will not change, but it takes time and education. We might be looking at one or two generations later, where this 99 percent daunting figure will start coming down and things will start getting much better as it approaches the 50 percent mark. Until then, the least the elite of the country can do is to sacrifice their own ambition and interest. It is lack of such measures that brought the nation where it is now, where the dissatisfaction level is at the very highest. It will not also be difficult to spot such ambitions, and whenever such ambitions are spotted they should be shot down for the good of the nation. Therefore, it is always possible to start from what is possible, which is sacrificing self-interest and that should include everyone. What this means is there will have to be some source that will expose such ambitions so that, at least, even if the leaders of the nation are going to be from among the natives, those very ambitious ones and those who would find it difficult to sacrifice their self-interest in the name of the nation will be weeded out.
posted by Ethio-Probe @ 10:21 AM
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