The Complication Level Is Not Letting Up
What is taking place in the Horn of Africa currently is creating a dire situation for the present and future inhabitants of the regime simply because the situation in Somalia is obviously out control and deteriorating since it is the Ethiopians who are trying to stabilize something that had gone awry. It is obvious that what is taking place now is the outcome of extreme fundamentalism in the part of the Islamists who went as far as creating a haven for Al Qaeda. If that were not the case, it would have not attracted the attention of the Americans whereby they willingly financed the Ethiopians to rout them out of the country. It is difficult to say the Somalis had been archenemies of the Americans since the Americans were financing the warlords that the Islamist run over and took charge of the region.
What this means is even if the Americans tried to buy friends among the Somalis the general population remains to be the enemies of the Americans and the West, although there is nothing new about it as the Somalis had been enemies of the Americans since they forced them out of their country. The warlords who were obliterated by the Islamist used to be financed by the Americans at the time when this particular country was not haven for Al Qaeda members. It seems that if that was not the case Somalia would have been a different country today where no one can intervene, whether it was run by the Islamists or any other group. What gave the Americans a legitimate concern was Al Qaeda’s operation had reached a dangerous proportion and the only way to put a stop to it was to drive them out of Somalia, which they partially accomplished by financing and arming a desperate regime like Ethiopia. It is very difficult to foretell what the outcome will be in the near or distant future, but the fact that the Somalis have failed to keep their house in order has brought in the Americans into Africa simply because, it is not only in Africa that the Americans are claiming to have a right to get involved. Wherever terrorism is taking shelter is a cordoned region until it is routed out and that is one of the reasons they do not have much opposition.
The Americans presence anywhere in the world has many advantages. In the Horn for example, it is not going be easy in the future for any authoritarian government to send root even if such a government is doing so under their nose. The pretext used for that is there are not others who can shoulder the responsibility of governing the region. There is some truth to it because, none of the ethnic groups, whether it is from their earlier track record or from where they are now, inferring from what they are trying to accomplish, it seems that to the dismay of everyone there might not be any other coordinated group that can take over from TPLF/EPRDF and implement any kind of systematic running of a government affair based on democracy. It is very difficult to say why since almost every ethnic group in Ethiopia had some kind of presence and a role to play in the previous governments, but when it comes to running a government no one seems to be ready. That is a reality that cannot be concealed easily. It is difficult to tell what the long-term effect of such a failure will be.
The concern is it has brought the Americans at our doorsteps and they are demanding that everything has to be carried out at the level they understand it. That is what HR-2003 is all about. The undying talk of war between the Ethiopians and the Eritreans had been in the news lately too. Even if it had cooled off recently, there was some certainty about something happening in the coming few weeks. That could be the reality but it is difficult to say what purpose it will serve. It is possible to allow the Eritreans to repeat what TPLF did by giving them all the support they need and once they usurp the power from the TPLF it might be possible to form a government that is more representative of the ethnic groups in the country, that being what the country might need badly at this point in time. That by itself could be labeled as a democracy when there is no one ethnic group going around harming others. The other democracy that is the real one, where the people will put governments that they believe will do the job is the preferred one, but it could be some years away in a real sense.
Hence, it is possible to say that getting rid of this government might usher in a representative government in office and every consecutive governments should be the same no matter how it is done. Which means the primary responsibility of everyone will be not to go back to an authoritarian system that is made up of only one ethnic group, the key thing that needs avoiding since that alone could pave the way toward democracy. The problem here is it is not going to be easy to beat TPLF and its entourages simply because they are well armed and financed if the Americans are going to support them to the end. At the same time they are doing a good job except that, for starters, the nation needs a much better representative government where no ethnic group is a dominant player, simply because it is such a government that would not have dread toward democracy since there will not be much they will lose.
On the other hand, there could be another master plan that has got the blessing as well as the initiation of the Americans to repeat what took place in Somalia and bring somehow Eritrea under the control of Ethiopia, because the Eritreans are being labeled as terrorist nation that is interfering in the affairs of other countries and might have Al Qeada connection. If that is the case Isaias might be in line to get the day of Sadam Hussein because he has become some kind of a dictator in his own right who has a disdain for the Americans and the West since he is not associating with them in any endeavor and does not seem to have any use of their aid and money. This means the West had blacklisted him a while back and since they are getting a respite in Iraq they might want to get rid of someone they think could grow up to be a threat and they can do it by declaring a proxy war undertaken by the Ethiopians. If they succeed everyone is in the dark about their future plan for Eritrea. Alternatively, if Isaias himself has the backup he needs to beat TPLF, the most likelihood is it could be possible to usher in another administration in Addis and the fact that he will challenge the presence of the Americans in the Horn is there. Even if their presence has some economical and political advantage, it does not mean there is no opposition.
If the Americans presence in the Horn is not welcome one way to put a cap on it is by curtailing any dealing and wheeling with Al Qaeda that was out to challenge their undertakings worldwide. But since Al Qaeda is linked to one individual, Osama bin Ladin, as this individual becomes ineffective in the future, the overall group itself will take the same route and fade away. Consequently, those who are attracted by the advantage he and his group are availing in a form of funds and arms dries up, they will start keeping their distance. Or when they realize their associating with him and his likes who are bent to avenge the Americans by engaging in a terrorist act could cause an unprecedented damage, simply because the Americans are not going to take it sitting down and they would go to any length to arrest any threat against them. Along the way they could cause a considerable damage like what has happened in Iraq, which is devastating except that no one wants to say it is so, despite the fact that from start to finish what took place was wrong that includes the coming to power of someone like Sadam Hussein. In the end, everyone has come to know how devastating it had been for both sides.
Iraq is a, more or less, rich country since it has its oil and if not all of it, some of it will start generating income for the nation and its people. But if such devastation or a much lesser one in its magnitude takes place in any other country, which is unlikely in the first place, the outcome could be catastrophic. What the likelihood is there is not going to be a replica of what happened in Iraq taking place in the Horn, but there could be a proxy war that will be financed by the Americans. Even if such action is going to be wrong, since no one wants to blame the Americans in the open because of the causalities they had suffered, the mistake would be masked as something justified to do, simply because Isaias is becoming some kind of a threat.
Therefore, lesson learned for anyone including Eritreans is since the Muslims went far in raising the furor of America that is a powerful nation, some caution has to be exercised when dealing with them. It is even a much worse news for the radical Muslims since they have to change their image and method simply because the Americans are too powerful for them to the point where they have the means to uproot them. The problem is for those caught in the crossfire such as the Horn region that has yet to decide the effect of the Americans presence.
What this means is even if the Americans tried to buy friends among the Somalis the general population remains to be the enemies of the Americans and the West, although there is nothing new about it as the Somalis had been enemies of the Americans since they forced them out of their country. The warlords who were obliterated by the Islamist used to be financed by the Americans at the time when this particular country was not haven for Al Qaeda members. It seems that if that was not the case Somalia would have been a different country today where no one can intervene, whether it was run by the Islamists or any other group. What gave the Americans a legitimate concern was Al Qaeda’s operation had reached a dangerous proportion and the only way to put a stop to it was to drive them out of Somalia, which they partially accomplished by financing and arming a desperate regime like Ethiopia. It is very difficult to foretell what the outcome will be in the near or distant future, but the fact that the Somalis have failed to keep their house in order has brought in the Americans into Africa simply because, it is not only in Africa that the Americans are claiming to have a right to get involved. Wherever terrorism is taking shelter is a cordoned region until it is routed out and that is one of the reasons they do not have much opposition.
The Americans presence anywhere in the world has many advantages. In the Horn for example, it is not going be easy in the future for any authoritarian government to send root even if such a government is doing so under their nose. The pretext used for that is there are not others who can shoulder the responsibility of governing the region. There is some truth to it because, none of the ethnic groups, whether it is from their earlier track record or from where they are now, inferring from what they are trying to accomplish, it seems that to the dismay of everyone there might not be any other coordinated group that can take over from TPLF/EPRDF and implement any kind of systematic running of a government affair based on democracy. It is very difficult to say why since almost every ethnic group in Ethiopia had some kind of presence and a role to play in the previous governments, but when it comes to running a government no one seems to be ready. That is a reality that cannot be concealed easily. It is difficult to tell what the long-term effect of such a failure will be.
The concern is it has brought the Americans at our doorsteps and they are demanding that everything has to be carried out at the level they understand it. That is what HR-2003 is all about. The undying talk of war between the Ethiopians and the Eritreans had been in the news lately too. Even if it had cooled off recently, there was some certainty about something happening in the coming few weeks. That could be the reality but it is difficult to say what purpose it will serve. It is possible to allow the Eritreans to repeat what TPLF did by giving them all the support they need and once they usurp the power from the TPLF it might be possible to form a government that is more representative of the ethnic groups in the country, that being what the country might need badly at this point in time. That by itself could be labeled as a democracy when there is no one ethnic group going around harming others. The other democracy that is the real one, where the people will put governments that they believe will do the job is the preferred one, but it could be some years away in a real sense.
Hence, it is possible to say that getting rid of this government might usher in a representative government in office and every consecutive governments should be the same no matter how it is done. Which means the primary responsibility of everyone will be not to go back to an authoritarian system that is made up of only one ethnic group, the key thing that needs avoiding since that alone could pave the way toward democracy. The problem here is it is not going to be easy to beat TPLF and its entourages simply because they are well armed and financed if the Americans are going to support them to the end. At the same time they are doing a good job except that, for starters, the nation needs a much better representative government where no ethnic group is a dominant player, simply because it is such a government that would not have dread toward democracy since there will not be much they will lose.
On the other hand, there could be another master plan that has got the blessing as well as the initiation of the Americans to repeat what took place in Somalia and bring somehow Eritrea under the control of Ethiopia, because the Eritreans are being labeled as terrorist nation that is interfering in the affairs of other countries and might have Al Qeada connection. If that is the case Isaias might be in line to get the day of Sadam Hussein because he has become some kind of a dictator in his own right who has a disdain for the Americans and the West since he is not associating with them in any endeavor and does not seem to have any use of their aid and money. This means the West had blacklisted him a while back and since they are getting a respite in Iraq they might want to get rid of someone they think could grow up to be a threat and they can do it by declaring a proxy war undertaken by the Ethiopians. If they succeed everyone is in the dark about their future plan for Eritrea. Alternatively, if Isaias himself has the backup he needs to beat TPLF, the most likelihood is it could be possible to usher in another administration in Addis and the fact that he will challenge the presence of the Americans in the Horn is there. Even if their presence has some economical and political advantage, it does not mean there is no opposition.
If the Americans presence in the Horn is not welcome one way to put a cap on it is by curtailing any dealing and wheeling with Al Qaeda that was out to challenge their undertakings worldwide. But since Al Qaeda is linked to one individual, Osama bin Ladin, as this individual becomes ineffective in the future, the overall group itself will take the same route and fade away. Consequently, those who are attracted by the advantage he and his group are availing in a form of funds and arms dries up, they will start keeping their distance. Or when they realize their associating with him and his likes who are bent to avenge the Americans by engaging in a terrorist act could cause an unprecedented damage, simply because the Americans are not going to take it sitting down and they would go to any length to arrest any threat against them. Along the way they could cause a considerable damage like what has happened in Iraq, which is devastating except that no one wants to say it is so, despite the fact that from start to finish what took place was wrong that includes the coming to power of someone like Sadam Hussein. In the end, everyone has come to know how devastating it had been for both sides.
Iraq is a, more or less, rich country since it has its oil and if not all of it, some of it will start generating income for the nation and its people. But if such devastation or a much lesser one in its magnitude takes place in any other country, which is unlikely in the first place, the outcome could be catastrophic. What the likelihood is there is not going to be a replica of what happened in Iraq taking place in the Horn, but there could be a proxy war that will be financed by the Americans. Even if such action is going to be wrong, since no one wants to blame the Americans in the open because of the causalities they had suffered, the mistake would be masked as something justified to do, simply because Isaias is becoming some kind of a threat.
Therefore, lesson learned for anyone including Eritreans is since the Muslims went far in raising the furor of America that is a powerful nation, some caution has to be exercised when dealing with them. It is even a much worse news for the radical Muslims since they have to change their image and method simply because the Americans are too powerful for them to the point where they have the means to uproot them. The problem is for those caught in the crossfire such as the Horn region that has yet to decide the effect of the Americans presence.
posted by Ethio-Probe @ 7:21 AM
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