The HR2003 Dilemma

There is nothing wrong with HR2003. It should be applicable in any democratic country and all democratic countries should be asked to have such laws as a primary requirements simply because that is what democracy is all about. People have to have all the freedoms that go with democracy, as well as certain rights that they can enjoy without anyone trampling them. What introducing such a law would mean in the case of Ethiopia is the current regime that is made up of a small ethnic group would be severely threatened. Since it is too late now, it does not make sense to accuse the Derg regime for painting the nation into a Soviet Block corner, except that at that particular moment any recognition from the Soviets was a heaven-sent relief, as the nation was desperate for any kind of help from anywhere, after it got rid of the monarchy. Because of the measures it took and the whole radical undertaking it masterminded had irked the West to the point where they had said that they would have nothing to do with the new leaders. That was also coupled by the touch of arrogance the new Marxist tainted thinking posed that made them untouchable by anyone else other than the communist block.

That availed opportunity, not only for TPLF but to other political movements that came together to create a coalition that had been working for some time to get rid of the Derg, which had always been believed to be not only instrumental to the Amhara ruling class, but the new introduction was the other side of the coin that was supposed to represent a new introduction where some of the mistakes the monarchy and the feudal system committed would be redressed. When the dust settled down and the Derg faltered the more ambitious northerners had dominated the political scene where they were in charge of the whole operation that walked into the palace and later on Eritrea was allowed to declare its independence with no one to hold it back, while the Tigreans were allowed and started governing the country, simply because they had the support of the Western nations, since it is the Americans who literally put them on power.

It is difficult to say what that would mean, except that in spite of their minority status, since they were part of the ruling machination at a lower level, they must have been better prepared than the Oromos who should have been given more role to play simply because of their high number and similar presence they had in the earlier administrations. They also had strong presence in the coalition through OLF, which is not seen with positive eyes by every Oromo, since the leaders could have their own agenda that would put other members of the Oromo population at a disadvantage. To make things worse, there is a long-held belief that there is no Ethiopia without the southern part of the country, although everyone knows that part of the country is a newfound land for the Amharas and is only 100 years old or so. The fear here is no one wants them to declare independence simply because the northern part of the country is so old and exhausted they need the southern part of the country to support the lifeline of the north. To that end they will cover any distance to avert such a calamity, even if the reality is the northern part of the country could feed itself using its own land if push comes to shove and the southerners lock them out of their region.

By bringing these simple facts together, it is possible to see why HR2003 is dreaded by some, while it is audaciously supported by others. What is interesting is power had been changing hands in the country starting from the Zemene Mesafints, where those who were in charge of the nation known as Ethiopia, the northern part of the country only, were not the Amharas, even if that part of the country was their homeland. That history goes back to the Axumite Kingdome that was forced to go south simply because the more or less desert land it was reigning on was made worse because of exhaustion. Because of that, the north western part of the country had absorbed those who fled south to the point where they had melted into the indigenous population through the course of the centuries they were inhabiting the area. Then it was Atse Tewdrose who usurped power from the house of Yeju Oromos who were running the country on behalf of the inhabitants. While that was taking place, everyone is familiar the blunder Atse Tewdrose committed that brought the British at his doorstep. That incident left Atse Yohanes, a small chieftan with a huge arms cache given to him by the British for facilitating their capture of Atse Tewdrose that eventually enabled him to declare himself a king simply because there was no one to claim the throne legitimately with a contending military backup.

Then Atse Minilik came into the picture and had a burning desire to conquer the southern part of the country and make it his tributary simply because his settlement needed the supply in the first place, and secondly the Oromos somehow had to be subdued, because they had proven to be a threat and a menace before they relinquish their power for Atse Tewdros’ ambition and drive to create an empire. He had the arms to do so and he of course, obtained his cache by selling the real estate called Eritrea with all its inhabitants, simply because conquering the southern part of the country was more important than having a port, as well as than defending the inhabitant of that particular piece of real estate that he could have been advised will not go anywhere and it could be claimed back in the future. It is not difficult to foresee that from the political situation that was taking place where European colonizers would lose their colonies in Africa for indigenous people in the long run, and when that happens nobody might be around to claim old deals. We have witnessed that had come true in out time and Eritrea is an independent country, not even a part of Ethiopia.

In all this, the Amharas had been enjoying a political power over the whole country they called Ethiopia for a little bit more than 100 years that was unprecedented where they had united the northern and southern part of the country and it was under their strict hegemony. That hegemony had somehow been fatigued when the Derge regime faltered simply because of a problem that was out of its control and everything would end up in the hands of the Tigreans. Because of that the Amharas are not only sitting in the wing waiting for the right time to snatch back what they lost, but from what they are doing outside and inside of the country they are working hard to expedite that snatching back of power. Others fear that will plunge the country back to where it was, where the supremacy of the Amharas will be restored again and the country will remain backward for as long as they are on power, simply because, even if they are minority and everyone resents that, it seems that the Tigreans have what it takes better than the Amharas to lead the country into the future and pull it out of the poverty it is dwelling in. It is not possible to immerse into why things are as they are at this moment except that many people have realized that is how things are and the country’s future is set toward the right direction, although it is not going to be a smooth journey.

The problem now is when an alley such as America is going to demand certain requirements have to be met in order to continue to do what it is doing. There is nothing wrong with it, but before deciding on such course of action they have to be aware of the imminent danger of loosening the control in the country, simply because it will create a bonanza to a retired white elephant that would not hesitate to come out of its retirement if the possibility is there. And what HR2003 would create is exactly that where there will be loopholes created so that these arrested elements waiting in the wing will take advantage of and that will directly interfere with what the nation is accomplishing with all its shortcomings that is hailed to be better than what had been accomplished before. The credit goes to all Ethiopians who are participating in what is taking place, although the coordinating role had been under the control of the Tigrean, which is a lesser evil the people can afford to live with much longer than going back to the point of no return, where it is going to take generation after generation to bring the nation out of the doldrums it is in if there is going to be a relapse.

Hence, the concern is those who are ready to approve this bill as a law should be aware of where the nation is coming from, as the Amharas are waiting in the wing and are the most notorious ethnic group that will have to abdicate politics completely for good voluntarily if they want the nation to get ahead and participate in other endeavors of nation building, as long as they are equally represented in the government. That is so because it could take two or three generations for the Amharas to understand or to allow the kind of democracy others are looking for to take root in the country. Unless that is the case it is a waste of time, maybe human life, and hard to come resources. Democracy in such an environment does not work and especially the Americans have tasted firsthand what it means where an ethnic group is excessively stubborn since they had been dealing with it on a daily basis in Iraq where the Sunnis can be easily compared with the Amharas, as far as their ethnic stubbornness is concerned. Both could be sitting in the wing plotting how to punish those who had usurped power from them, even if it was proven that both were spent and had no means of running their nations properly other than to concede defeat, although that was worse in the case of the Amharas who had to concede defeat immediately, whereas the Sunnis could have lingered inflicting more damages.

Just between the Ethiopians, this is not the first time that happened in the country where some other group was delegated to the silver throne simply because there was enough sign that the involved entities could be annihilated by their adversaries who were armed better than them, and this time not only with arms but by the size of the coalition they were able to bring together, which is more than three-fourth of the nation. If there is anything different being observed now, it is that the occupant is fidgeting to the point where if the time is right the current occupant will jump out of the seat and could cause damage, while at the same time given the circumstances the Amharas might not even deserve to hold such a place in a democratic Ethiopia where there are others who would be contending even for the top leadership post simply because they have the number and might have to bring the input and the like at a par with others. At the same time since the nation is going to be democratic, no one will get away by clinging to power for long.

Therefore, unless there is an end to the ethnic strife the nation cannot become democratic immediately although it is in the process of doing so and that will take time. This will make the current regime much preferred simply because it has a few advantages. One of them is it could subdue the ambitions of the Amharas that might not have any bounds and does not have a place in the new country. The other one is those in charge now know what the nation needs more than anybody else, although there is a continuous need to introduce check and balance so that some of the things they are suspected of doing would not derail what they are doing, as well as the slow progress the nation is attaining. In the same light, the Americans one of the best allies Ethiopia has would have to reconsider what the nation needs exactly at this point in time, because it might not exactly be the strict implementations of HR2003.