Rendezvous in Addis

That drive certainly had been averted for good, nevertheless it would have been a good opportunity to make TPLF taste its own medicine. At the beginning, it seemed that the possibility would be there because the Eritreans were also on the scene. From what happened, probably if the Ethiopian government had sent out the police force it would have attained the same result, which means the Islamist Somalis and their supporters were ill prepared, and the fighters that were brought together in haste were mostly teenagers with no training at all. Yet the question is if the Ethiopians with the backing of their allies the Americans had not taken a preemptive measure, the Islamists would have easily taken over Baidoa, which shows that the government troops were also ill prepared and ill equipped.

The dust, more or less, has settled down now and the Islamist are routed out of their stronghold, even if they could still be present in some of the communities they were controlling and certainly they do not have any power, they are in hiding. The lesson that could be learned from this is the Islamists were not the best choice for Somalia simply because they are too fundamentalist and radicals who were able to introduce a number of draconian rules within that six month time they were in charge of some part of the country. From past experience even if the Somalis are not much different from other African countries in how they are faring, when it comes to freedom they were different from many countries where Islam is dominant, which means they had unlimited freedom in most of the things they were doing. When that is snatched out of their hand they did not retaliate and yet it seemed that there were more to it than submission. It looked as if they had badly wanted to put the turmoil behind them as one Somali put it where they did not care who runs the government as long as the lawlessness comes to some kind of an end. What this means is it is much better to bring law and order back with a civilian government that does not have special requirements other than to abide by the rules.

The government now is slowly tightening its grip because it does not have any better choice since the community is infiltrated by warlords who are heavily armed and that is why the martial law with the disarming of the citizen has been introduced. The other good news is they are getting all kind of support and help, including financial aid from every direction and all they have to do is surround themselves with experts and try to pick up the pieces. As we know it, for some reason getting ahead is not easy for Africans no matter what the level of help they get, and maybe it might have to do with the level of their education where a change that will be introduced by a handful of elite might not make much difference, although it will always be a good starting point that they can capitalize on. The nation seems to be industrious because with all the turmoil besieging them the people were somehow managing to support themselves where production and even exporting had been kept alive, which would mean the future prospect when they have what they require badly at their disposal will be promising.

Of course, the Ethiopians will go back the minute they are relived off their duty by some kind a peace-keeping force that everyone is talking about is in the process of being built. The problem is the relationship of the Americans and the existing regime has reached its zenith and is entering a very complicated and worrisome threshold. And if there is a fear in everyone’s mind this kind of cozy relationship might interfere with the full blooming of democracy in the country, because if there is anything that will raise the hair of the Americans it is any kind of instability in the Horn, which they fear will be a breeding ground for terrorism. Any of the opposition parties, especially the newly formed ones will have difficulty to shake off the existence of Al-Queida, which could be used as a pretext to retard their effort of bringing real democracy in the country if that is how they are looking at it. There is no denying that EPRDF/TPLF is doing good things for the country and that is only true when it is seen in comparison to what the Derg and its predecessors were doing. Which means any administration that is heavily dominated by a small minority group is not at all a democracy in the real sense of the term and in its real life application.

But the number of people that are opposing what is taking place in the country and who are supporting it, more or less, is split evenly, which would mean even if this group could be taking advantage of the system, because of the dread of going back to the old days some people might prefer to see the administration continue doing what is doing. Such an outlook is not new for the Ethiopians because they were so submissive at the time of the Imperial regime it was only a few disgruntled citizens who saw that some kind of a measure was needed to bring a change in the country, whether they were right or wrong. And when those citizens accomplished the unexpected people went back to being submissive again to the point where a gureilla force that was working hard to free its own region came and grabbed the administration. But this administration, in spite of its humble beginning would be given a lot of credit, because it is doing obviously a lot for the nation, yet we do not have to forget that it is a responsibility of any administration that will find itself in a position of administrating the nation to do the same.

The way they will have to be evaluated is by the amount work they are doing for the nation, how they are sharing power with others, their human rights records, the way they deal with the opposition, their stand on democracy, and fair election, unless they are planning to start another monarchy. In essence the nation will have to be run by a popularly elected government if it is in sight at all, a lack that is playing in their favor.

Currently, since their interest is being entwined with the Americans they both can shoot down any effort to bring democracy into the country by simply saying the entrants are allying with Al-Queida and that could be damaging simply because the strongest opposition should originate from other freedom fighters that resemble TPLF itself in their makeup and role that are already taking flak. The reason why it has to be so is the EPRDF/TPLF have repeatedly said indirectly that the only way they will relinquish power is through arms. This means civilian parties will have to resort into a guerilla tactic to take power from them, then work to bring democracy into the country by allowing a fair election. What took place in Somalia has definitely made the work of the oppositions difficult and it will force them to walk a tight rope.

Consequently, the current situation is the public could be cozy with what is taking place in the nation and there might not be a need to try to introduce democracy or a new administration, yet it might be a good exercise to engage in a symbolic election drill when election time comes. However, it is also possible that dissatisfaction could surface anytime, which would mean all oppositions would have to be on their toes not to miss that signal. Or it could be those of us who are living outside of the country who are not getting the real picture in the country where the political struggle to introduce democracy could still be alive and kicking. Nevertheless, as long as the people are having it good that is why some developed countries have open tenure where if an administration is doing a good job it could go back to office repeatedly through elections, where there is no term limit that it will be required to serve, and there is no reason the same will not be applicable. If there is anything that will be missing it is the militant nature of the election where there will not be anyone like CUD going around accusing the government for rigging the election.